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Borussia DortmundvsHamburg
Match
★ THE AI READEvery signal we found, grouped.
Borussia DortmundvsHamburg
CORRECT SCORE

1-0 to Borussia is the modal outcome

BD
BORUSSIA DOR
1–0
HAM
HAMBURG
53% · most likely outcome (next: 0-0 at 47%)

Bookie's headline pick — peak of the model's distribution. Correct score is hard; treat the pin small.

Borussia 1-0
BTTS

BTTS No · 1.92

37%
Borussia Dor CS
0%
Hamburg CS
Clean-sheet rate · last 10

Clean-sheet rates aren't loaded — call it on the price.

Both teams to score · No
GOALS

Over 2.5 pays 2.12 — call on price alone

Borussia Dortmund
2.0
Hamburg
0.0

Season goals data isn't loaded yet. Price is in the band but the data layer's thin.

Over 2.5 Goals
Alt:Over 1.52.16Over 3.52.28
★ ALL MARKETSCompare every line.
★ POPULAR VALUE BETSWhere the crowd is putting their money — value picks only (1.50–5.00).
Draw or Hamburg
Match
Full Time
Draw and Both Teams To Score
Borussia Dortmund to Win and Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score
Total Goals
LineOverUnder
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
Total Goals by Borussia Dortmund
LineOverUnder
2.5
Total Goals by Hamburger SV
LineOverUnder
0.5
Total Goals Odd/Even
Double Chance
Double Chance - 1st Half
Draw No Bet
Draw No Bet - 1st Half
Total Goals - 1st Half
LineOverUnder
1.5
Half Time
★ DEEP STATSForm, history, edge.

Form & Hierarchy

FORM

Last 5 matches
HomeBorussia Dortmund
AwayHamburg
Win Rate vs Table Tier
Each team's win % against opponents in the top, middle, and bottom thirds of the table this season.
Borussia Dortmund
vs Top tier
33%
4W·2D·6L (12)
vs Mid tier
77%
10W·2D·1L (13)
Hamburg
vs Top tier
21%
3W·4D·7L (14)
vs Mid tier
29%
2W·4D·1L (7)
vs Bottom tier
40%
2W·1D·2L (5)

Momentum Meter

Borussia DortmundHamburg
▲MOMENTUM—
1.80PPG (LAST 5)—
37%CLEAN-SHEET WIN RATE7%

League Position

1Bayern Munich89pts
2Borussia Dortmund73pts
3RB Leipzig65pts
4VfB Stuttgart62pts

League table

#TeamPGDPts
1Bayern Munich34+8689
2Borussia Dortmund34+3673
3RB Leipzig34+1965
4VfB Stuttgart34+2262
5TSG Hoffenheim34+1361

Goals & BTTS

Team Goals Distribution (model)
Probability of each team scoring 0, 1, 2, or 3+ goals — anchor for Team Total Goals markets.
Borussia Dortmund — expected: 1.79 goals
0
16.8%
1
30.0%
2
26.7%
3+
26.5%
Hamburg — expected: 1.21 goals
0
29.8%
1
36.1%
2
21.8%
3+
12.3%
Total Goals — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Borussia Dortmund (2.00 scored / 1.17 conceded per match) and Hamburg (1.25 / 1.57). Expected total: 3.00.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
0.5
95.0%
5.0%
1.05
1.5
80.0%
20.0%
1.25
2.5
57.6%
42.4%
1.74
3.5
35.2%
64.8%
2.84
4.5
18.4%
81.6%
5.44
5.5
8.3%
91.7%
11.99
Compare the fair-odds column against the bookmaker's Over price — significant gaps either way are value flags. Model assumes Poisson-distributed goals and average attack/defence; doesn't yet adjust for home advantage or vs-tier opponent strength (planned, see VS Engine extension spec).
BTTS Rate vs Table Tier
Both teams' BTTS rate broken down by opponent's league position. Spot the gap between season-overall and tier-specific rates.
Borussia Dortmundseason 46.7%
vs Top tier
50%
(12)
vs Mid tier
46.2%
(13)
Hamburgseason 75%
vs Top tier
85.7%
(14)
vs Mid tier
85.7%
(7)
vs Bottom tier
40%
(5)
Clean Sheet Rate
% of matches with no goals conceded — opponent's path to BTTS No or Win-to-Nil
Borussia Dortmund
36.7%
Hamburg
14.3%
Clean-sheet win rate: Borussia Dortmund 36.7% · Hamburg 7.1%

Scoring Patterns

Borussia DortmundHamburg
53%SCORED FIRST14%
17%FAILED TO SCORE18%
70%LEADING AT HT39%
40%CONCEDED 2+43%

Half-Time Behaviour

Half-Time Lead Rate
How often each team is leading / drawing / trailing at HT
Borussia Dortmundlead 53% · draw 23% · trail 23%
Hamburglead 14% · draw 61% · trail 25%
HT/FT Combinations (model)
Joint half-time × full-time rates blended from Borussia Dortmund's and Hamburg's half-by-half records. Heatmap intensity = relative likelihood.
Home / Home
1/1
27.1%
Home / Draw
1/X
6.7%
Home / Away
1/2
6.7%
Draw / Home
X/1
13.7%
Draw / Draw
X/X
16.6%
Draw / Away
X/2
11.7%
Away / Home
2/1
8.6%
Away / Draw
2/X
8.6%
Away / Away
2/2
15.5%
Independence assumption between halves is an approximation — true joint frequencies require per-match HT+FT pairs (VS Engine extension planned). Use for relative comparison rather than absolute probability.
First-Half Tendency
How each team starts matches — anchor for 1H markets, HT/FT, Half-Time Result.
Stat
Borussia Dortmund
Hamburg
Scored first %
53.3%
14.3%
Conceded first %
—
—
Failed to score %
16.7%
17.9%

Set Pieces & Discipline

Corners

Per-match rolling average
Borussia DortmundHamburg
0CORNERS FOR0
0CORNERS AGAINST0
0NET DIFF0
Total Corners — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Borussia Dortmund (5.10 / 3.80 per match) and Hamburg (3.68 / 6.00). Expected total: 9.29. Compare the fair-odds column against the bookie's Over price for value.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
7.5
70.9%
29.1%
1.41
8.5
58.2%
41.8%
1.72
9.5
45.1%
54.9%
2.22
10.5
32.9%
67.1%
3.04
11.5
22.6%
77.4%
4.42
12.5
14.6%
85.4%
6.83
Corner Dominance
Expected corners: Borussia Dortmund 5.5, Hamburg 3.7. Difference: +1.8.
Borussia Dortmund 60%40% Hamburg

Cards & Discipline

Borussia DortmundHamburg
0YELLOW / MATCH0
0RED / MATCH0
0TOTAL / MATCH0
Total Cards — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Borussia Dortmund (2.10 / 2.10 per match) and Hamburg (2.39 / 2.39). Expected total: 4.49. Note: card markets are heavily referee-driven — combine with Referee Effect.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
2.5
82.5%
17.5%
1.21
3.5
65.6%
34.4%
1.52
4.5
46.6%
53.4%
2.15
5.5
29.5%
70.5%
3.39
6.5
16.8%
83.2%
5.96

Shots

Per-match rolling average
Borussia DortmundHamburg
0SHOTS / MATCH0
0ON TARGET0
0CONCEDED0
0ON TARGET CONC.0
Total Shots — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Borussia Dortmund (11.70 / 9.37 per match) and Hamburg (10.57 / 12.57). Expected total: 22.10. Total shots includes off-target attempts.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
18.5
77.4%
22.6%
1.29
20.5
62.2%
37.8%
1.61
22.5
45.3%
54.7%
2.21
24.5
29.6%
70.4%
3.38
26.5
17.3%
82.7%
5.77
Total SoT — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Borussia Dortmund (4.97 / 3.93 per match) and Hamburg (4.46 / 4.89). Expected total: 9.13. Shots on target only — typically half the total shot count.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
6.5
80.4%
19.6%
1.24
7.5
69.1%
30.9%
1.45
8.5
56.1%
43.9%
1.78
9.5
42.9%
57.1%
2.33
10.5
30.9%
69.1%
3.24
11.5
20.9%
79.1%
4.78

Combos & Specials

Combo Bet Hit Rate
How often each team has hit common combo bets (Win+BTTS, Win-to-Nil, Win+Over 2.5) — overall and against specific tiers. Cells suppressed when sample < 5 matches.
Borussia Dortmund
Win + BTTS
season
23.3%
vs top
8.3%
vs mid
30.8%
vs bottom
—
Win to Nil
season
36.7%
vs top
25%
vs mid
46.2%
vs bottom
—
Win + Over 2.5
season
40%
vs top
8.3%
vs mid
61.5%
vs bottom
—
Loss + BTTS
season
10%
vs top
25%
vs mid
0%
vs bottom
—
Draw + Under 2.5
season
3.3%
vs top
0%
vs mid
7.7%
vs bottom
—
Scored in Both Halves
season
56.7%
vs top
33.3%
vs mid
76.9%
vs bottom
—
Hamburg
Win + BTTS
season
21.4%
vs top
21.4%
vs mid
28.6%
vs bottom
20%
Win to Nil
season
7.1%
vs top
0%
vs mid
0%
vs bottom
20%
Win + Over 2.5
season
21.4%
vs top
21.4%
vs mid
28.6%
vs bottom
20%
Loss + BTTS
season
25%
vs top
35.7%
vs mid
14.3%
vs bottom
20%
Draw + Under 2.5
season
32.1%
vs top
21.4%
vs mid
57.1%
vs bottom
20%
Scored in Both Halves
season
21.4%
vs top
21.4%
vs mid
14.3%
vs bottom
40%
Unbeaten Run
Consecutive matches without losing — the safer side of Double Chance / DNB
Borussia Dortmund
lost last match
0
Hamburg
lost last match
0
Win % Excluding Draws
How often each team wins when the match doesn't end in a draw — DNB anchor
Borussia Dortmund
60%
3W · 0D · 2L · draw rate 0%
Hamburg
—
0W · 0D · 0L · draw rate —

HIDDEN PATTERNS

Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburg
  • FTSE in the green! When the London market closes up and Borussia Dortmund playBorussia Dortmund SCORE
    14/14Applies today
  • Sugar rush on matchday! When sugar futures close higher and Borussia Dortmund playBorussia Dortmund SCORE
    15/17Applies today
  • Coffee on the rise! When coffee futures close higher and Borussia Dortmund playGOAL FEST (Over 2.5)
    10/12Applies today
  • Coffee on the rise! When coffee futures close higher and Borussia Dortmund playBorussia Dortmund SCORE
    10/12Applies today
  • The Prime Number Effect! When Borussia Dortmund play on prime datesBorussia Dortmund WIN
    9/12Applies today

Match Insights

Betting Trends
No betting data available for this market yet.

League bests

BEST OVERALL
  1. #1IK Sirius2.67 poäng/match
  2. #2Hammarby IF1.77 poäng/match
  3. #3BK Hacken1.67 poäng/match
BEST ATTACK
  1. #1IK Sirius2.75 mål/match
  2. #2Hammarby IF2.15 mål/match
  3. #3Djurgardens IF2.09 mål/match
BEST DEFENCE
  1. #1GAIS0.92 insläppta/match
  2. #2Hammarby IF1.08 insläppta/match
  3. #3IF Elfsborg1.08 insläppta/match
BEST FORM
  1. #1IK Sirius80% vinster senaste 5
  2. #2Malmo FF60% vinster senaste 5
  3. #3IF Elfsborg60% vinster senaste 5
BEST GOAL DIFFERENCE
  1. #1IK Sirius+18
  2. #2Hammarby IF+14
  3. #3Djurgardens IF+8
★ PLAYERSWho decides this match.

PLAYER PROFILE

Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburg
Borussia Dortmund
  • Guirassy, Serhou
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Brandt, Julian
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Beier, Maximilian
    0G
    0A
    0
Hamburg

No player stats yet.

TOP SCORERS

  1. 1
    Ure, RobbieSIR
    12
  2. 2
    Botheim, ErikMAL
    10
  3. 3
    Bjerkebo, IsakSIR
    10
  4. 4
    Ladefoged, MikkelVAS
    9
  5. 5
    Lien, Kristian StromlandDJU
    7
  6. 6
    Abraham, PaulosHIF
    7
  7. 7
    Heintz, TobiasIFK
    6
  8. 8
    Besara, NahirHIF
    5
  9. 9
    Lind, VictorHIF
    5
  10. 10
    Bergstrom, JacobMJA
    5

Top Assists

  1. 1
    Hegland, Bo AsulvDJU
    8
  2. 2
    Berg, OliverBRO
    5
  3. 3
    Haksabanovic, SeadMAL
    5
  4. 4
    Krusnell, OscarSIR
    5
  5. 5
    Hansen, MadsBRO
    5
  6. 6
    Sana, TobiasORG
    4
  7. 7
    Besara, NahirHIF
    4
  8. 8
    Layouni, AmorHAC
    4
  9. 9
    Lushaku, IsmetVAS
    4
  10. 10
    Milovanovic, WilliamGAIS
    4
★ MATCH INFOVenue, ref, weather.
BDBorussia Dortmund
HHamburg
BundesligaSat 29 Aug, 15:30
18+

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