junibet
EvertonvsChelsea
Match
★ THE AI READEvery signal we found, grouped.
EvertonvsChelsea
GOALS

Both attacks fire — 3.2 goals expected, line is 2.5

Everton
1.6
Chelsea
1.4

Everton averaging 1.6, Chelsea 1.4. The number sits clean above 2.5.

Over 2.5 Goals
Alt:Over 2.53.55Over 2.53.80
BTTS

Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10

60%
Everton BTTS
57%
Chelsea BTTS
Last 10 matches

Everton at 60%, Chelsea at 57%. The H2H rate is 59% — the model copies it.

Both teams to score
CORNERS

Everton live in the opposition third — 9.8 corners/match between them

Everton avg 4.2Chelsea avg 5.5
4.2
5.5
total scale: 0 → 14

Combined 9.8/m vs the 10.5 line — only 0.7 under. The shape is right, the margin is thin.

Under 10.5 Corners
Alt:Under 8.52.85Under 7.54.00
MATCH RESULT

Everton unbeaten in 5

WDDDW

Hard to break right now. Everton to win at 2.95 respects the pattern without overpaying.

Everton to win
★ ALL MARKETSCompare every line.
★ POPULAR VALUE BETSWhere the crowd is putting their money — value picks only (1.50–5.00).
Yes
Match
Full Time
Everton to Win At Least One Half
Chelsea to Win At Least One Half
Chelsea to Win to Nil
Everton to Win to Nil
Chelsea to Win and Both Teams To Score
Goal in Both Halves
Everton to Win and Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score - 2nd Half
Both Teams To Score - 1st Half
Both Teams To Score
Total Goals
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
Total Goals by Chelsea
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
Under—
Total Goals by Everton
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
Under—
Double Chance - 1st Half
Double Chance - 2nd Half
Double Chance
Draw No Bet - 1st Half
Draw No Bet
Draw No Bet - 2nd Half
Total Goals - 1st Half
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
2.5
Total Goals - 2nd Half
LineUnderOver
0.5
1.5
2.5
Total Goals by Everton - 1st Half
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
Total Goals by Chelsea - 2nd Half
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
Total Goals by Chelsea - 1st Half
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
Total Goals by Everton - 2nd Half
LineOverUnder
0.5
3-Way Handicap - 1st Half
Line1X
Everton
Everton
Everton
First Goal (Draw: No Goals)
Half Time
2nd Half
Total Corners
LineUnderOver
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
12.5
13.5
14.5
Total Corners - 1st Half
LineOverUnder
3.5
4.5
5.5
Total Corners - 2nd Half
LineOverUnder
5.5
Total Corners By Everton - 1st Half
LineOverUnder
1.5
2.5
3.5
Total Corners By Chelsea - 1st Half
LineOverUnder
1.5
2.5
3.5
Total Corners by Everton
LineOverUnder
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
Total Corners by Chelsea
LineOverUnder
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
Corners 3-Way Handicap
Line1X
Everton
Everton
Everton
Most Corners
Next Corner, No Corner No Bet (1)
Total Shots on Target
LineOver2
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
Total Shots on Target by Chelsea
LineOver2
4.5
5.5
6.5
Total Shots on Target by Everton
LineOver2
3.5
4.5
★ DEEP STATSForm, history, edge.

Form & Hierarchy

FORM

Last 5 matches
HomeEverton
AwayChelsea
Win Rate vs Table Tier
Each team's win % against opponents in the top, middle, and bottom thirds of the table this season.
Everton
vs Top tier
29%
2W·2D·3L (7)
vs Mid tier
50%
3W·1D·2L (6)
vs Bottom tier
17%
1W·3D·2L (6)
Chelsea
vs Top tier
20%
2W·2D·6L (10)

Momentum Meter

EvertonChelsea
▲MOMENTUM▼
1.80PPG (LAST 5)1.40
24%CLEAN-SHEET WIN RATE5%

League Position

1Manchester City15pts
2Arsenal FC12pts
3Brighton & Hove Albion10pts
4Brentford FC9pts

League table

#TeamPGDPts
1Manchester City5+815
2Arsenal FC5+412
3Brighton & Hove Albion5+1110
4Brentford FC5+69
5Leeds United5+49

Goals & BTTS

GOAL PROFILE

Everton vs Chelsea
Everton83 goals
1st half0%
2nd half0%
56 matches analysed
Chelsea96 goals
1st half0%
2nd half0%
57 matches analysed
Team Goals Distribution (model)
Probability of each team scoring 0, 1, 2, or 3+ goals — anchor for Team Total Goals markets.
Everton — expected: 1.85 goals
0
15.7%
1
29.1%
2
26.9%
3+
28.3%
Chelsea — expected: 1.35 goals
0
25.8%
1
35.0%
2
23.7%
3+
15.6%
Total Goals — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Everton (1.56 scored / 1.28 conceded per match) and Chelsea (1.43 / 2.14). Expected total: 3.21.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
0.5
95.9%
4.1%
1.04
1.5
82.9%
17.1%
1.21
2.5
62.1%
37.9%
1.61
3.5
39.9%
60.1%
2.51
4.5
22.0%
78.0%
4.54
5.5
10.6%
89.4%
9.44
Compare the fair-odds column against the bookmaker's Over price — significant gaps either way are value flags. Model assumes Poisson-distributed goals and average attack/defence; doesn't yet adjust for home advantage or vs-tier opponent strength (planned, see VS Engine extension spec).
BTTS Rate vs Table Tier
Both teams' BTTS rate broken down by opponent's league position. Spot the gap between season-overall and tier-specific rates.
Evertonseason 60%
vs Top tier
42.9%
(7)
vs Mid tier
83.3%
(6)
vs Bottom tier
50%
(6)
Chelseaseason 57.1%
vs Top tier
60%
(10)
Clean Sheet Rate
% of matches with no goals conceded — opponent's path to BTTS No or Win-to-Nil
Everton
28%
Chelsea
4.8%
Clean-sheet win rate: Everton 24% · Chelsea 4.8%

Scoring Patterns

EvertonChelsea
44%SCORED FIRST19%
16%FAILED TO SCORE38%
60%LEADING AT HT33%
44%CONCEDED 2+67%

HEAD-TO-HEAD

Everton3 - 0Chelsea
Chelsea2 - 0Everton
Chelsea1 - 0Everton
Everton0 - 0Chelsea
Chelsea6 - 0Everton
Everton2 - 0Chelsea

0 meetings: 0 home wins, 0 draws, 0 away wins

Half-Time Behaviour

Half-Time Lead Rate
How often each team is leading / drawing / trailing at HT
Evertonlead 44% · draw 32% · trail 24%
Chelsealead 19% · draw 33% · trail 48%
HT/FT Combinations (model)
Joint half-time × full-time rates blended from Everton's and Chelsea's half-by-half records. Heatmap intensity = relative likelihood.
Home / Home
1/1
20.8%
Home / Draw
1/X
10.7%
Home / Away
1/2
10.7%
Draw / Home
X/1
8.3%
Draw / Draw
X/X
12.0%
Draw / Away
X/2
12.4%
Away / Home
2/1
8.4%
Away / Draw
2/X
8.4%
Away / Away
2/2
27.4%
Independence assumption between halves is an approximation — true joint frequencies require per-match HT+FT pairs (VS Engine extension planned). Use for relative comparison rather than absolute probability.
First-Half Tendency
How each team starts matches — anchor for 1H markets, HT/FT, Half-Time Result.
Stat
Everton
Chelsea
Scored first %
44%
19%
Conceded first %
—
—
Failed to score %
16%
38.1%

Set Pieces & Discipline

Corners

Per-match rolling average
EvertonChelsea
0CORNERS FOR0
0CORNERS AGAINST0
0NET DIFF0
Total Corners — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Everton (4.24 / 3.88 per match) and Chelsea (5.52 / 3.90). Expected total: 8.77. Compare the fair-odds column against the bookie's Over price for value.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
7.5
64.8%
35.2%
1.54
8.5
51.4%
48.6%
1.95
9.5
38.2%
61.8%
2.62
10.5
26.7%
73.3%
3.74
11.5
17.5%
82.5%
5.71
12.5
10.8%
89.2%
9.25
Corner Dominance
Expected corners: Everton 4.1, Chelsea 4.7. Difference: -0.6.
Everton 46%54% Chelsea

Cards & Discipline

EvertonChelsea
0YELLOW / MATCH0
0RED / MATCH0
0TOTAL / MATCH0
Total Cards — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Everton (1.76 / 1.76 per match) and Chelsea (1.86 / 1.86). Expected total: 3.62. Note: card markets are heavily referee-driven — combine with Referee Effect.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
2.5
70.1%
29.9%
1.43
3.5
48.9%
51.1%
2.04
4.5
29.7%
70.3%
3.36
5.5
15.9%
84.1%
6.30
6.5
7.5%
92.5%
13.34

Shots

Per-match rolling average
EvertonChelsea
0SHOTS / MATCH0
0ON TARGET0
0CONCEDED0
0ON TARGET CONC.0
Total Shots — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Everton (12.14 / 11.95 per match) and Chelsea (12.95 / 9.85). Expected total: 23.45. Total shots includes off-target attempts.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
18.5
84.7%
15.3%
1.18
20.5
72.1%
27.9%
1.39
22.5
56.4%
43.6%
1.77
24.5
40.1%
59.9%
2.49
26.5
25.7%
74.3%
3.89
Total SoT — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Everton (4.52 / 3.57 per match) and Chelsea (4.55 / 5.00). Expected total: 8.82. Shots on target only — typically half the total shot count.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
6.5
77.6%
22.4%
1.29
7.5
65.5%
34.5%
1.53
8.5
52.0%
48.0%
1.92
9.5
38.9%
61.1%
2.57
10.5
27.3%
72.7%
3.66
11.5
18.0%
82.0%
5.56

Combos & Specials

Combo Bet Hit Rate
How often each team has hit common combo bets (Win+BTTS, Win-to-Nil, Win+Over 2.5) — overall and against specific tiers. Cells suppressed when sample < 5 matches.
Everton
Win + BTTS
season
16%
vs top
0%
vs mid
33.3%
vs bottom
0%
Win to Nil
season
24%
vs top
28.6%
vs mid
16.7%
vs bottom
16.7%
Win + Over 2.5
season
24%
vs top
14.3%
vs mid
33.3%
vs bottom
0%
Loss + BTTS
season
20%
vs top
14.3%
vs mid
33.3%
vs bottom
16.7%
Draw + Under 2.5
season
12%
vs top
0%
vs mid
0%
vs bottom
33.3%
Scored in Both Halves
season
36%
vs top
42.9%
vs mid
16.7%
vs bottom
33.3%
Chelsea
Win + BTTS
season
23.8%
vs top
20%
vs mid
—
vs bottom
—
Win to Nil
season
4.8%
vs top
0%
vs mid
—
vs bottom
—
Win + Over 2.5
season
23.8%
vs top
20%
vs mid
—
vs bottom
—
Loss + BTTS
season
23.8%
vs top
20%
vs mid
—
vs bottom
—
Draw + Under 2.5
season
4.8%
vs top
10%
vs mid
—
vs bottom
—
Scored in Both Halves
season
28.6%
vs top
40%
vs mid
—
vs bottom
—
Unbeaten Run
Consecutive matches without losing — the safer side of Double Chance / DNB
Everton
5 matches unbeaten
5
Chelsea
2 matches unbeaten
2
Win % Excluding Draws
How often each team wins when the match doesn't end in a draw — DNB anchor
Everton
100%
2W · 3D · 0L · draw rate 60%
Chelsea
50%
2W · 1D · 2L · draw rate 20%

HIDDEN PATTERNS

Everton vs Chelsea
  • The Prime Number Effect! When Everton play on prime datesEverton SCORE
    7/8Applies today
  • Waxing Moon Effect! When the moon grows and Chelsea playHOME WIN
    7/8Applies today
  • Waxing Moon Effect! When the moon grows and Chelsea playGOAL FEST (Over 2.5)
    7/8Applies today
  • FTSE in the green! When the London market closes up and Chelsea playGOAL FEST (Over 2.5)
    12/14Applies today
  • OJ futures pop! When orange-juice futures close higher and Everton playEverton SCORE
    13/16Applies today

Match Insights

Betting Trends
No betting data available for this market yet.

MATCH INSIGHT

Everton vs Chelsea
  • Away team total goals
    Everton1.56 goals/match
    Chelsea1.43 goals/match
  • Most corners
    Everton4.2 /match
    Chelsea5.5 /match

League bests

BEST OVERALL
  1. #1IK Sirius2.32 poäng/match
  2. #2Hammarby IF1.95 poäng/match
  3. #3Djurgardens IF1.86 poäng/match
BEST ATTACK
  1. #1IK Sirius2.36 mål/match
  2. #2Hammarby IF2.23 mål/match
  3. #3Djurgardens IF2.14 mål/match
BEST DEFENCE
  1. #1Hammarby IF0.91 insläppta/match
  2. #2GAIS0.91 insläppta/match
  3. #3Djurgardens IF0.95 insläppta/match
BEST FORM
  1. #1IK Sirius80% vinster senaste 5
  2. #2IF Elfsborg60% vinster senaste 5
  3. #3Malmo FF60% vinster senaste 5
BEST GOAL DIFFERENCE
  1. #1Hammarby IF+29
  2. #2Djurgardens IF+26
  3. #3IK Sirius+24
★ PLAYERSWho decides this match.

PLAYER PROFILE

Everton vs Chelsea
Everton
  • Barry, Thierno
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Beto
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Tarkowski, James
    0G
    0A
    0
Chelsea
  • Joao Pedro
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Welbeck, Danny
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Palmer, Cole
    0G
    0A
    0

TOP SCORERS

  1. 1
    Lien, Kristian StromlandDJU
    16
  2. 2
    Ure, RobbieSIR
    15
  3. 3
    Abraham, PaulosHIF
    14
  4. 4
    Bjerkebo, IsakSIR
    13
  5. 5
    Lindgren, GustavHAC
    12
  6. 6
    Botheim, ErikMAL
    10
  7. 7
    Lind, VictorHIF
    9
  8. 8
    Bergstrom, JacobMJA
    9
  9. 9
    Christofferson, NoahORG
    8
  10. 10
    Hegland, Bo AsulvDJU
    8

Top Assists

  1. 1
    Hegland, Bo AsulvDJU
    14
  2. 2
    Lind, VictorHIF
    13
  3. 3
    Haksabanovic, SeadMAL
    8
  4. 4
    Bjerkebo, IsakSIR
    7
  5. 5
    Sana, TobiasORG
    6
  6. 6
    Berg, OliverBRO
    6
  7. 7
    Hansen, MadsBRO
    6
  8. 8
    Heintz, TobiasIFK
    5
  9. 9
    Krusnell, OscarSIR
    5
  10. 10
    Lindberg, JuliusHAC
    5
★ MATCH INFOVenue, ref, weather.
EEverton
CChelsea
Premier LeagueSat 17 Oct, 13:30
Round
Premier League matchweek
7
VenueHill Dickinson StadiumLiverpool · England · 52,769
Historical H2H (10 meetings)
Avg goals: 2.20 · BTTS: 20% · Over 2.5: 30% · Clean sheet either side: 80%
DateMatchScoreComp.
21 Mar 26Everton FC vs Chelsea FC3–0—
13 Dec 25Chelsea FC vs Everton FC2–0—
26 Apr 25Chelsea FC vs Everton FC1–0—
22 Dec 24Everton FC vs Chelsea FC0–0—
15 Apr 24Chelsea FC vs Everton FC6–0—
10 Dec 23Everton FC vs Chelsea FC2–0—
18 Mar 23Chelsea FC vs Everton FC2–2—
06 Aug 22Everton FC vs Chelsea FC0–1—
01 May 22Everton FC vs Chelsea FC1–0—
16 Dec 21Chelsea FC vs Everton FC1–1—
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