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NottinghamvsLeeds
Match
★ THE AI READEvery signal we found, grouped.
NottinghamvsLeeds
CORRECT SCORE

0-0 leads — model's flat-curve pick

NOT
NOTTINGHAM
0–0
LEE
LEEDS
59% · most likely outcome (next: 1-0 at 41%)

Sums to 0 — model's expectation runs at 2.98. Lean only.

Nottingham 0-0
BTTS

Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10

53%
Nottingham BTTS
59%
Leeds BTTS
Last 10 matches

Nottingham at 53%, Leeds at 59%. The H2H rate is 56% — the model copies it.

Both teams to score
GOALS

Both attacks fire — 2.7 goals expected, line is 2.5

Nottingham
1.5
Leeds
1.4

Nottingham 1.5 g/m, Leeds 1.4. Edge is mild — line and model are close.

Over 2.5 Goals
Alt:Over 2.51.72Over 2.54.10
★ ALL MARKETSCompare every line.
★ POPULAR VALUE BETSWhere the crowd is putting their money — value picks only (1.50–5.00).
Nottingham to win
Match
Leeds to win
Match
Over (Over)
Match
Full Time
Nottingham Forest to Win At Least One Half
Nottingham Forest to Win to Nil
Leeds United to Win At Least One Half
Leeds United to Win to Nil
Leeds United to Win and Both Teams To Score
Leeds United To Score - 1st Half
Both Teams To Score - 2nd Half
Both Teams To Score
Nottingham Forest To Score - 1st Half
Nottingham Forest to Win and Both Teams To Score
Draw and Both Teams To Score
Goal in Both Halves
Both Teams To Score - 1st Half
Total Goals
LineOverUnder
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
Total Goals by Leeds United
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
2.5
Total Goals by Nottingham Forest
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
2.5
Total Goals Odd/Even
Total Goals by Nottingham Forest Odd/Even
Total Goals by Leeds United Odd/Even
Double Chance
Double Chance - 2nd Half
Double Chance - 1st Half
Draw No Bet - 1st Half
Draw No Bet - 2nd Half
Draw No Bet
Total Goals - 1st Half
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
Total Goals - 2nd Half
LineUnderOver
1.5
2.5
3-Way Handicap - 1st Half
Line1X
Nottingham
3-Way Handicap - 2nd Half
Line1X
Nottingham
2nd Half
Half Time
★ DEEP STATSForm, history, edge.

Form & Hierarchy

FORM

Last 5 matches
HomeNottingham
AwayLeeds
Win Rate vs Table Tier
Each team's win % against opponents in the top, middle, and bottom thirds of the table this season.
Nottingham
vs Top tier
27%
4W·5D·6L (15)
vs Mid tier
50%
4W·2D·2L (8)
vs Bottom tier
50%
3W·2D·1L (6)
Leeds
vs Top tier
27%
3W·6D·2L (11)
vs Mid tier
14%
1W·4D·2L (7)
vs Bottom tier
50%
3W·2D·1L (6)

Momentum Meter

NottinghamLeeds
▼MOMENTUM▼
1.60PPG (LAST 5)1.60
23%CLEAN-SHEET WIN RATE14%

League Position

1Arsenal FC85pts
2Manchester City78pts
3Manchester United71pts
4Aston Villa65pts

League table

#TeamPGDPts
1Arsenal FC38+4485
2Manchester City38+4278
3Manchester United38+1971
4Aston Villa38+765
5Liverpool FC38+1060

Goals & BTTS

GOAL PROFILE

Nottingham vs Leeds
Nottingham100 goals
1st half0%
2nd half0%
67 matches analysed
Leeds77 goals
1st half0%
2nd half0%
55 matches analysed
Team Goals Distribution (model)
Probability of each team scoring 0, 1, 2, or 3+ goals — anchor for Team Total Goals markets.
Nottingham — expected: 1.37 goals
0
25.4%
1
34.8%
2
23.8%
3+
15.9%
Leeds — expected: 1.29 goals
0
27.5%
1
35.5%
2
22.9%
3+
14.1%
Total Goals — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Nottingham (1.53 scored / 1.13 conceded per match) and Leeds (1.45 / 1.21). Expected total: 2.66.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
0.5
93.0%
7.0%
1.08
1.5
74.4%
25.6%
1.34
2.5
49.7%
50.3%
2.01
3.5
27.7%
72.3%
3.61
4.5
13.1%
86.9%
7.62
5.5
5.4%
94.6%
18.67
Compare the fair-odds column against the bookmaker's Over price — significant gaps either way are value flags. Model assumes Poisson-distributed goals and average attack/defence; doesn't yet adjust for home advantage or vs-tier opponent strength (planned, see VS Engine extension spec).
BTTS Rate vs Table Tier
Both teams' BTTS rate broken down by opponent's league position. Spot the gap between season-overall and tier-specific rates.
Nottinghamseason 53.3%
vs Top tier
46.7%
(15)
vs Mid tier
50%
(8)
vs Bottom tier
66.7%
(6)
Leedsseason 58.6%
vs Top tier
54.5%
(11)
vs Mid tier
57.1%
(7)
vs Bottom tier
66.7%
(6)
Clean Sheet Rate
% of matches with no goals conceded — opponent's path to BTTS No or Win-to-Nil
Nottingham
33.3%
Leeds
24.1%
Clean-sheet win rate: Nottingham 23.3% · Leeds 13.8%

Scoring Patterns

NottinghamLeeds
30%SCORED FIRST35%
23%FAILED TO SCORE28%
47%LEADING AT HT52%
27%CONCEDED 2+24%

HEAD-TO-HEAD

Leeds Utd3 - 1Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest3 - 1Leeds Utd

0 meetings: 0 home wins, 0 draws, 0 away wins

Half-Time Behaviour

Half-Time Lead Rate
How often each team is leading / drawing / trailing at HT
Nottinghamlead 30% · draw 37% · trail 33%
Leedslead 34% · draw 45% · trail 21%
HT/FT Combinations (model)
Joint half-time × full-time rates blended from Nottingham's and Leeds's half-by-half records. Heatmap intensity = relative likelihood.
Home / Home
1/1
24.5%
Home / Draw
1/X
7.8%
Home / Away
1/2
7.8%
Draw / Home
X/1
13.1%
Draw / Draw
X/X
17.8%
Draw / Away
X/2
9.8%
Away / Home
2/1
8.8%
Away / Draw
2/X
8.8%
Away / Away
2/2
18.2%
Independence assumption between halves is an approximation — true joint frequencies require per-match HT+FT pairs (VS Engine extension planned). Use for relative comparison rather than absolute probability.
First-Half Tendency
How each team starts matches — anchor for 1H markets, HT/FT, Half-Time Result.
Stat
Nottingham
Leeds
Scored first %
30%
34.5%
Conceded first %
—
—
Failed to score %
23.3%
27.6%

Set Pieces & Discipline

Corners

Per-match rolling average
NottinghamLeeds
0CORNERS FOR0
0CORNERS AGAINST0
0NET DIFF0
Total Corners — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Nottingham (5.27 / 4.83 per match) and Leeds (5.00 / 5.93). Expected total: 10.52. Compare the fair-odds column against the bookie's Over price for value.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
7.5
82.3%
17.7%
1.22
8.5
72.2%
27.8%
1.38
9.5
60.5%
39.5%
1.65
10.5
48.1%
51.9%
2.08
11.5
36.3%
63.7%
2.75
12.5
26.0%
74.0%
3.85
Corner Dominance
Expected corners: Nottingham 5.6, Leeds 4.9. Difference: +0.7.
Nottingham 53%47% Leeds

Cards & Discipline

NottinghamLeeds
0YELLOW / MATCH0
0RED / MATCH0
0TOTAL / MATCH0
Total Cards — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Nottingham (1.50 / 1.50 per match) and Leeds (1.76 / 1.76). Expected total: 3.26. Note: card markets are heavily referee-driven — combine with Referee Effect.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
2.5
63.2%
36.8%
1.58
3.5
41.1%
58.9%
2.43
4.5
23.0%
77.0%
4.34
5.5
11.2%
88.8%
8.90
6.5
4.8%
95.2%
20.68

Shots

Per-match rolling average
NottinghamLeeds
0SHOTS / MATCH0
0ON TARGET0
0CONCEDED0
0ON TARGET CONC.0
Total Shots — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Nottingham (13.17 / 11.13 per match) and Leeds (11.48 / 11.76). Expected total: 23.77. Total shots includes off-target attempts.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
18.5
86.2%
13.8%
1.16
20.5
74.3%
25.7%
1.35
22.5
59.0%
41.0%
1.69
24.5
42.7%
57.3%
2.34
26.5
28.0%
72.0%
3.57
Total SoT — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Nottingham (4.80 / 3.90 per match) and Leeds (4.10 / 3.83). Expected total: 8.31. Shots on target only — typically half the total shot count.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
6.5
72.4%
27.6%
1.38
7.5
59.0%
41.0%
1.69
8.5
45.1%
54.9%
2.22
9.5
32.3%
67.7%
3.09
10.5
21.7%
78.3%
4.62
11.5
13.6%
86.4%
7.35

Combos & Specials

Combo Bet Hit Rate
How often each team has hit common combo bets (Win+BTTS, Win-to-Nil, Win+Over 2.5) — overall and against specific tiers. Cells suppressed when sample < 5 matches.
Nottingham
Win + BTTS
season
13.3%
vs top
6.7%
vs mid
12.5%
vs bottom
33.3%
Win to Nil
season
23.3%
vs top
20%
vs mid
37.5%
vs bottom
16.7%
Win + Over 2.5
season
26.7%
vs top
13.3%
vs mid
37.5%
vs bottom
50%
Loss + BTTS
season
16.7%
vs top
13.3%
vs mid
25%
vs bottom
16.7%
Draw + Under 2.5
season
26.7%
vs top
26.7%
vs mid
25%
vs bottom
33.3%
Scored in Both Halves
season
23.3%
vs top
13.3%
vs mid
50%
vs bottom
16.7%
Leeds
Win + BTTS
season
17.2%
vs top
18.2%
vs mid
0%
vs bottom
33.3%
Win to Nil
season
13.8%
vs top
9.1%
vs mid
14.3%
vs bottom
16.7%
Win + Over 2.5
season
24.1%
vs top
18.2%
vs mid
0%
vs bottom
50%
Loss + BTTS
season
3.4%
vs top
0%
vs mid
14.3%
vs bottom
0%
Draw + Under 2.5
season
34.5%
vs top
45.5%
vs mid
28.6%
vs bottom
33.3%
Scored in Both Halves
season
24.1%
vs top
9.1%
vs mid
14.3%
vs bottom
50%
Unbeaten Run
Consecutive matches without losing — the safer side of Double Chance / DNB
Nottingham
3 matches unbeaten
3
Leeds
4 matches unbeaten
4
Win % Excluding Draws
How often each team wins when the match doesn't end in a draw — DNB anchor
Nottingham
66.7%
2W · 2D · 1L · draw rate 40%
Leeds
66.7%
2W · 2D · 1L · draw rate 40%

HIDDEN PATTERNS

Nottingham vs Leeds
  • Fire signs ignite! When the sun is in Aries/Leo/Sagittarius and Calvert-Lewin, Dominic playCalvert-Lewin, Dominic FINDS THE NET
    6/8Applies today
  • Fire signs ignite! When the sun is in Aries/Leo/Sagittarius and Calvert-Lewin, Dominic playCalvert-Lewin, Dominic GOAL OR ASSIST
    6/8Applies today
  • Fire signs ignite! When the sun is in Aries/Leo/Sagittarius and Leeds playLeeds SCORE
    7/8Applies today
  • Fire signs ignite! When the sun is in Aries/Leo/Sagittarius and Leeds playBOTH TEAMS SCORE
    6/8Applies today
  • Numerology speaks! When the date digits add to an even number and Leeds playLeeds SCORE
    11/13Applies today

Match Insights

Betting Trends
No betting data available for this market yet.

League bests

BEST OVERALL
  1. #1IK Sirius2.67 poäng/match
  2. #2Hammarby IF1.77 poäng/match
  3. #3BK Hacken1.67 poäng/match
BEST ATTACK
  1. #1IK Sirius2.75 mål/match
  2. #2Hammarby IF2.15 mål/match
  3. #3Djurgardens IF2.09 mål/match
BEST DEFENCE
  1. #1GAIS0.92 insläppta/match
  2. #2Hammarby IF1.08 insläppta/match
  3. #3IF Elfsborg1.08 insläppta/match
BEST FORM
  1. #1IK Sirius80% vinster senaste 5
  2. #2Malmo FF60% vinster senaste 5
  3. #3IF Elfsborg60% vinster senaste 5
BEST GOAL DIFFERENCE
  1. #1IK Sirius+18
  2. #2Hammarby IF+14
  3. #3Djurgardens IF+8
★ PLAYERSWho decides this match.

PLAYER PROFILE

Nottingham vs Leeds
Nottingham
  • Gibbs-White, Morgan
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Awoniyi, Taiwo
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Kalimuendo, Arnaud
    0G
    0A
    0
Leeds
  • Calvert-Lewin, Dominic
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Okafor, Noah
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Nmecha, Lukas
    0G
    0A
    0

TOP SCORERS

  1. 1
    Ure, RobbieSIR
    12
  2. 2
    Botheim, ErikMAL
    10
  3. 3
    Bjerkebo, IsakSIR
    10
  4. 4
    Ladefoged, MikkelVAS
    9
  5. 5
    Lien, Kristian StromlandDJU
    7
  6. 6
    Abraham, PaulosHIF
    7
  7. 7
    Heintz, TobiasIFK
    6
  8. 8
    Besara, NahirHIF
    5
  9. 9
    Lind, VictorHIF
    5
  10. 10
    Bergstrom, JacobMJA
    5

Top Assists

  1. 1
    Hegland, Bo AsulvDJU
    8
  2. 2
    Berg, OliverBRO
    5
  3. 3
    Haksabanovic, SeadMAL
    5
  4. 4
    Krusnell, OscarSIR
    5
  5. 5
    Hansen, MadsBRO
    5
  6. 6
    Sana, TobiasORG
    4
  7. 7
    Besara, NahirHIF
    4
  8. 8
    Layouni, AmorHAC
    4
  9. 9
    Lushaku, IsmetVAS
    4
  10. 10
    Milovanovic, WilliamGAIS
    4
★ MATCH INFOVenue, ref, weather.
NNottingham
LLeeds
Premier LeagueSat 22 Aug, 16:00
Historical H2H (2 meetings)
Avg goals: 4.00 · BTTS: 100% · Over 2.5: 100% · Clean sheet either side: 0%
DateMatchScoreComp.
06 Feb 26Leeds United vs Nottingham Forest3–1—
09 Nov 25Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United3–1—
18+

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