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Manchester CityvsBournemouth
Match
★ THE AI READEvery signal we found, grouped.
Manchester CityvsBournemouth
CORRECT SCORE

1-0 to Manchester is the modal outcome

MC
MANCHESTER C
1–0
BOU
BOURNEMOUTH
100% · most likely outcome

Sums to 1 — model's expectation runs at 3.47. Lean only.

Manchester 1-0
BTTS

Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10

48%
Manchester C BTTS
71%
Bournemouth BTTS
Last 10 matches

Manchester City at 48%, Bournemouth at 71%. The H2H rate is 60% — the model copies it.

Both teams to score
GOALS

Both attacks fire — 2.9 goals expected, line is 2.5

Manchester City
1.9
Bournemouth
1.6

Manchester City 1.9 g/m, Bournemouth 1.6. Edge is mild — line and model are close.

Over 2.5 Goals
Alt:Over 2.52.80Over 2.52.05
MATCH RESULT

Bournemouth unbeaten in 5

DWWDD

Hard to break right now. Bournemouth or Draw at 2.85 respects the pattern without overpaying.

Bournemouth or Draw
★ ALL MARKETSCompare every line.
★ POPULAR VALUE BETSWhere the crowd is putting their money — value picks only (1.50–5.00).
Draw
Match
Full Time
Manchester City to Win At Least One Half
Bournemouth to Win At Least One Half
Manchester City to Win to Nil
Both Teams To Score - 2nd Half
Manchester City to Win and Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score
Bournemouth To Score - 1st Half
Both Teams To Score - 1st Half
Draw and Both Teams To Score
Manchester City To Score - 1st Half
Bournemouth to Win and Both Teams To Score
Goal in Both Halves
Total Goals
LineOverUnder
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
Total Goals by Bournemouth
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
2.5
Total Goals by Manchester City
LineOverUnder
1.5
2.5
3.5
Total Goals by Manchester City Odd/Even
Total Goals by Bournemouth Odd/Even
Total Goals Odd/Even
Double Chance
Double Chance - 2nd Half
Double Chance - 1st Half
Draw No Bet - 2nd Half
Draw No Bet
Draw No Bet - 1st Half
Total Goals - 1st Half
LineOverUnder
1.5
2.5
Total Goals - 2nd Half
LineUnderOver
1.5
2.5
3-Way Handicap - 1st Half
Line1X
Manchester City
3-Way Handicap - 2nd Half
Line1X
Manchester City
Manchester City
2nd Half
Half Time
★ DEEP STATSForm, history, edge.

Form & Hierarchy

FORM

Last 5 matches
HomeManchester City
AwayBournemouth
Win Rate vs Table Tier
Each team's win % against opponents in the top, middle, and bottom thirds of the table this season.
Manchester City
vs Top tier
40%
4W·1D·5L (10)
vs Mid tier
60%
3W·2D·0L (5)
vs Bottom tier
67%
4W·2D·0L (6)
Bournemouth
vs Top tier
20%
2W·6D·2L (10)
vs Mid tier
44%
4W·3D·2L (9)
vs Bottom tier
25%
2W·6D·0L (8)

Momentum Meter

Manchester CityBournemouth
▼MOMENTUM▼
1.60PPG (LAST 5)1.80
45%CLEAN-SHEET WIN RATE11%

League Position

1Arsenal FC85pts
2Manchester City78pts
3Manchester United71pts
4Aston Villa65pts

League table

#TeamPGDPts
1Arsenal FC38+4485
2Manchester City38+4278
3Manchester United38+1971
4Aston Villa38+765
5Liverpool FC38+1060

Goals & BTTS

GOAL PROFILE

Manchester City vs Bournemouth
Manchester City122 goals
1st half0%
2nd half0%
63 matches analysed
Bournemouth80 goals
1st half0%
2nd half0%
52 matches analysed
Team Goals Distribution (model)
Probability of each team scoring 0, 1, 2, or 3+ goals — anchor for Team Total Goals markets.
Manchester City — expected: 1.65 goals
0
19.3%
1
31.8%
2
26.1%
3+
22.8%
Bournemouth — expected: 1.25 goals
0
28.7%
1
35.8%
2
22.4%
3+
13.2%
Total Goals — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Manchester City (1.90 scored / 0.93 conceded per match) and Bournemouth (1.57 / 1.39). Expected total: 2.90.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
0.5
94.5%
5.5%
1.06
1.5
78.5%
21.5%
1.27
2.5
55.3%
44.7%
1.81
3.5
32.9%
67.1%
3.04
4.5
16.7%
83.3%
5.97
5.5
7.4%
92.6%
13.57
Compare the fair-odds column against the bookmaker's Over price — significant gaps either way are value flags. Model assumes Poisson-distributed goals and average attack/defence; doesn't yet adjust for home advantage or vs-tier opponent strength (planned, see VS Engine extension spec).
BTTS Rate vs Table Tier
Both teams' BTTS rate broken down by opponent's league position. Spot the gap between season-overall and tier-specific rates.
Manchester Cityseason 48.3%
vs Top tier
60%
(10)
vs Mid tier
60%
(5)
vs Bottom tier
33.3%
(6)
Bournemouthseason 71.4%
vs Top tier
80%
(10)
vs Mid tier
77.8%
(9)
vs Bottom tier
50%
(8)
Clean Sheet Rate
% of matches with no goals conceded — opponent's path to BTTS No or Win-to-Nil
Manchester City
44.8%
Bournemouth
25%
Clean-sheet win rate: Manchester City 44.8% · Bournemouth 10.7%

Scoring Patterns

Manchester CityBournemouth
48%SCORED FIRST29%
7%FAILED TO SCORE18%
83%LEADING AT HT57%
28%CONCEDED 2+39%

HEAD-TO-HEAD

AFC Bournemouth1 - 1Manchester City
Manchester City3 - 1AFC Bournemouth
Manchester City3 - 1AFC Bournemouth
AFC Bournemouth1 - 2Manchester City
AFC Bournemouth2 - 1Manchester City

0 meetings: 0 home wins, 0 draws, 0 away wins

Half-Time Behaviour

Half-Time Lead Rate
How often each team is leading / drawing / trailing at HT
Manchester Citylead 48% · draw 41% · trail 10%
Bournemouthlead 29% · draw 46% · trail 25%
HT/FT Combinations (model)
Joint half-time × full-time rates blended from Manchester City's and Bournemouth's half-by-half records. Heatmap intensity = relative likelihood.
Home / Home
1/1
29.5%
Home / Draw
1/X
8.9%
Home / Away
1/2
8.9%
Draw / Home
X/1
17.6%
Draw / Draw
X/X
16.4%
Draw / Away
X/2
10.0%
Away / Home
2/1
6.8%
Away / Draw
2/X
6.8%
Away / Away
2/2
10.9%
Independence assumption between halves is an approximation — true joint frequencies require per-match HT+FT pairs (VS Engine extension planned). Use for relative comparison rather than absolute probability.
First-Half Tendency
How each team starts matches — anchor for 1H markets, HT/FT, Half-Time Result.
Stat
Manchester City
Bournemouth
Scored first %
48.3%
28.6%
Conceded first %
—
—
Failed to score %
6.9%
17.9%

Set Pieces & Discipline

Corners

Per-match rolling average
Manchester CityBournemouth
0CORNERS FOR0
0CORNERS AGAINST0
0NET DIFF0
Total Corners — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Manchester City (7.07 / 3.72 per match) and Bournemouth (5.46 / 5.64). Expected total: 10.95. Compare the fair-odds column against the bookie's Over price for value.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
7.5
85.3%
14.7%
1.17
8.5
76.3%
23.7%
1.31
9.5
65.3%
34.7%
1.53
10.5
53.4%
46.6%
1.87
11.5
41.4%
58.6%
2.41
12.5
30.5%
69.5%
3.28
Corner Dominance
Expected corners: Manchester City 6.4, Bournemouth 4.6. Difference: +1.8.
Manchester City 58%42% Bournemouth

Cards & Discipline

Manchester CityBournemouth
0YELLOW / MATCH0
0RED / MATCH0
0TOTAL / MATCH0
Total Cards — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Manchester City (1.76 / 1.76 per match) and Bournemouth (2.43 / 2.43). Expected total: 4.19. Note: card markets are heavily referee-driven — combine with Referee Effect.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
2.5
78.8%
21.2%
1.27
3.5
60.3%
39.7%
1.66
4.5
40.8%
59.2%
2.45
5.5
24.5%
75.5%
4.08
6.5
13.1%
86.9%
7.61

Shots

Per-match rolling average
Manchester CityBournemouth
0SHOTS / MATCH0
0ON TARGET0
0CONCEDED0
0ON TARGET CONC.0
Total Shots — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Manchester City (14.66 / 9.03 per match) and Bournemouth (13.21 / 11.71). Expected total: 24.30. Total shots includes off-target attempts.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
18.5
88.4%
11.6%
1.13
20.5
77.6%
22.4%
1.29
22.5
63.2%
36.8%
1.58
24.5
47.1%
52.9%
2.12
26.5
31.8%
68.2%
3.14
Total SoT — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Manchester City (5.21 / 3.79 per match) and Bournemouth (4.75 / 3.86). Expected total: 8.80. Shots on target only — typically half the total shot count.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
6.5
77.5%
22.5%
1.29
7.5
65.3%
34.7%
1.53
8.5
51.8%
48.2%
1.93
9.5
38.7%
61.3%
2.58
10.5
27.1%
72.9%
3.69
11.5
17.8%
82.2%
5.60

Combos & Specials

Combo Bet Hit Rate
How often each team has hit common combo bets (Win+BTTS, Win-to-Nil, Win+Over 2.5) — overall and against specific tiers. Cells suppressed when sample < 5 matches.
Manchester City
Win + BTTS
season
20.7%
vs top
20%
vs mid
20%
vs bottom
0%
Win to Nil
season
44.8%
vs top
20%
vs mid
40%
vs bottom
66.7%
Win + Over 2.5
season
37.9%
vs top
30%
vs mid
60%
vs bottom
16.7%
Loss + BTTS
season
10.3%
vs top
30%
vs mid
0%
vs bottom
0%
Draw + Under 2.5
season
6.9%
vs top
10%
vs mid
0%
vs bottom
16.7%
Scored in Both Halves
season
24.1%
vs top
10%
vs mid
20%
vs bottom
33.3%
Bournemouth
Win + BTTS
season
17.9%
vs top
20%
vs mid
33.3%
vs bottom
0%
Win to Nil
season
10.7%
vs top
0%
vs mid
11.1%
vs bottom
25%
Win + Over 2.5
season
21.4%
vs top
20%
vs mid
33.3%
vs bottom
12.5%
Loss + BTTS
season
10.7%
vs top
20%
vs mid
11.1%
vs bottom
0%
Draw + Under 2.5
season
35.7%
vs top
40%
vs mid
22.2%
vs bottom
50%
Scored in Both Halves
season
28.6%
vs top
30%
vs mid
33.3%
vs bottom
25%
Unbeaten Run
Consecutive matches without losing — the safer side of Double Chance / DNB
Manchester City
4 matches unbeaten
4
Bournemouth
5 matches unbeaten
5
Win % Excluding Draws
How often each team wins when the match doesn't end in a draw — DNB anchor
Manchester City
66.7%
2W · 2D · 1L · draw rate 40%
Bournemouth
100%
2W · 3D · 0L · draw rate 60%

HIDDEN PATTERNS

Manchester City vs Bournemouth
  • Coffee on the rise! When coffee futures close higher and Manchester City playManchester City SCORE
    13/13Applies today
  • Earth-sign solidity! When the sun is in Capricorn/Taurus/Virgo and Bournemouth playBournemouth SCORE
    8/8Applies today
  • The Cocoa Effect! When cocoa futures close higher and Manchester City playManchester City SCORE
    9/9Applies today
  • The Starting XI Effect! When Haaland, Erling are in the starting line-upHaaland, Erling GOAL OR ASSIST
    6/6Applies today
  • Coffee on the rise! When coffee futures close higher and Bournemouth playGOAL FEST (Over 2.5)
    9/10Applies today

Match Insights

Betting Trends
No betting data available for this market yet.

League bests

BEST OVERALL
  1. #1IK Sirius2.67 poäng/match
  2. #2Hammarby IF1.77 poäng/match
  3. #3BK Hacken1.67 poäng/match
BEST ATTACK
  1. #1IK Sirius2.75 mål/match
  2. #2Hammarby IF2.15 mål/match
  3. #3Djurgardens IF2.09 mål/match
BEST DEFENCE
  1. #1GAIS0.92 insläppta/match
  2. #2Hammarby IF1.08 insläppta/match
  3. #3IF Elfsborg1.08 insläppta/match
BEST FORM
  1. #1IK Sirius80% vinster senaste 5
  2. #2Malmo FF60% vinster senaste 5
  3. #3IF Elfsborg60% vinster senaste 5
BEST GOAL DIFFERENCE
  1. #1IK Sirius+18
  2. #2Hammarby IF+14
  3. #3Djurgardens IF+8
★ PLAYERSWho decides this match.

PLAYER PROFILE

Manchester City vs Bournemouth
Manchester City
  • Haaland, Erling
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Doku, Jeremy
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Cherki, Rayan
    0G
    0A
    0
Bournemouth
  • Rayan
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Kroupi, Eli Junior
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Evanilson
    0G
    0A
    0

TOP SCORERS

  1. 1
    Ure, RobbieSIR
    12
  2. 2
    Botheim, ErikMAL
    10
  3. 3
    Bjerkebo, IsakSIR
    10
  4. 4
    Ladefoged, MikkelVAS
    9
  5. 5
    Lien, Kristian StromlandDJU
    7
  6. 6
    Abraham, PaulosHIF
    7
  7. 7
    Heintz, TobiasIFK
    6
  8. 8
    Besara, NahirHIF
    5
  9. 9
    Lind, VictorHIF
    5
  10. 10
    Bergstrom, JacobMJA
    5

Top Assists

  1. 1
    Hegland, Bo AsulvDJU
    8
  2. 2
    Berg, OliverBRO
    5
  3. 3
    Haksabanovic, SeadMAL
    5
  4. 4
    Krusnell, OscarSIR
    5
  5. 5
    Hansen, MadsBRO
    5
  6. 6
    Sana, TobiasORG
    4
  7. 7
    Besara, NahirHIF
    4
  8. 8
    Layouni, AmorHAC
    4
  9. 9
    Lushaku, IsmetVAS
    4
  10. 10
    Milovanovic, WilliamGAIS
    4
★ MATCH INFOVenue, ref, weather.
MCManchester City
BBournemouth
Premier LeagueSun 23 Aug, 15:00
At This Venue
Last 2 meetings at Manchester City's home ground.
02 Nov 25Manchester City vs AFC Bournemouth3–1
20 May 25Manchester City vs AFC Bournemouth3–1
Historical H2H (5 meetings)
Avg goals: 3.20 · BTTS: 100% · Over 2.5: 80% · Clean sheet either side: 0%
DateMatchScoreComp.
19 May 26AFC Bournemouth vs Manchester City1–1—
02 Nov 25Manchester City vs AFC Bournemouth3–1—
20 May 25Manchester City vs AFC Bournemouth3–1—
30 Mar 25AFC Bournemouth vs Manchester City1–2—
02 Nov 24AFC Bournemouth vs Manchester City2–1—
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