junibet
Newcastle UnitedvsLiverpool
Match
★ THE AI READEvery signal we found, grouped.
Newcastle UnitedvsLiverpool
GOALS

Both attacks fire — 3.4 goals expected, line is 2.5

Newcastle United
1.7
Liverpool
1.9

Newcastle United averaging 1.7, Liverpool 1.9. The number sits clean above 2.5.

Over 2.5 Goals
Alt:Over 2.53.35Over 2.53.95
CORRECT SCORE

0-0 leads — model's flat-curve pick

NEW
NEWCASTLE
0–0
LIV
LIVERPOOL
55% · most likely outcome (next: 0-1 at 45%)

Sums to 0 — model's expectation runs at 3.63. Lean only.

Newcastle 0-0
BTTS

Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10

73%
Newcastle Un BTTS
59%
Liverpool BTTS
Last 10 matches

Newcastle United at 73%, Liverpool at 59%. The H2H rate is 66% — the model copies it.

Both teams to score
★ ALL MARKETSCompare every line.
★ POPULAR VALUE BETSWhere the crowd is putting their money — value picks only (1.50–5.00).
Liverpool to win
Match
Newcastle United to win
Match
Newcastle United or Draw
Match
Draw
Match
Liverpool to win
Match
Full Time
Liverpool to Win to Nil
Newcastle United to Win At Least One Half
Newcastle United to Win to Nil
Liverpool to Win At Least One Half
Liverpool to Win and Both Teams To Score
Draw and Both Teams To Score
Newcastle United To Score - 1st Half
Both Teams To Score - 2nd Half
Goal in Both Halves
Newcastle United to Win and Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score
Liverpool To Score - 1st Half
Both Teams To Score - 1st Half
Total Goals
LineOverUnder
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
Total Goals by Liverpool
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
2.5
Total Goals by Newcastle United
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
2.5
Total Goals by Liverpool Odd/Even
Total Goals Odd/Even
Total Goals by Newcastle United Odd/Even
Double Chance - 2nd Half
Double Chance - 1st Half
Double Chance
Draw No Bet - 2nd Half
Draw No Bet
Draw No Bet - 1st Half
Total Goals - 1st Half
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
Total Goals - 2nd Half
LineUnderOver
1.5
2.5
3-Way Handicap - 1st Half
Line1X
Newcastle United
Newcastle United
3-Way Handicap - 2nd Half
Line1X
Newcastle United
Newcastle United
Half Time
2nd Half
★ DEEP STATSForm, history, edge.

Form & Hierarchy

FORM

Last 5 matches
HomeNewcastle United
AwayLiverpool
Win Rate vs Table Tier
Each team's win % against opponents in the top, middle, and bottom thirds of the table this season.
Newcastle United
vs Top tier
38%
5W·2D·6L (13)
vs Mid tier
29%
2W·0D·5L (7)
vs Bottom tier
60%
3W·2D·0L (5)
Liverpool
vs Top tier
30%
3W·1D·6L (10)
vs Mid tier
56%
5W·3D·1L (9)
vs Bottom tier
33%
2W·2D·2L (6)

Momentum Meter

Newcastle UnitedLiverpool
▲MOMENTUM▼
1.40PPG (LAST 5)1.00
10%CLEAN-SHEET WIN RATE24%

League Position

11Fulham FC52pts
12Newcastle United49pts
13Everton FC49pts
14Leeds United47pts

League table

#TeamPGDPts
1Arsenal FC38+4485
2Manchester City38+4278
3Manchester United38+1971
4Aston Villa38+765
5Liverpool FC38+1060
12Newcastle United38-249

Goals & BTTS

GOAL PROFILE

Newcastle United vs Liverpool
Newcastle United111 goals
1st half0%
2nd half0%
66 matches analysed
Liverpool119 goals
1st half0%
2nd half0%
63 matches analysed
Team Goals Distribution (model)
Probability of each team scoring 0, 1, 2, or 3+ goals — anchor for Team Total Goals markets.
Newcastle United — expected: 1.50 goals
0
22.2%
1
33.4%
2
25.1%
3+
19.2%
Liverpool — expected: 1.88 goals
0
15.3%
1
28.7%
2
27.0%
3+
29.1%
Total Goals — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Newcastle United (1.70 scored / 1.83 conceded per match) and Liverpool (1.93 / 1.31). Expected total: 3.38.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
0.5
96.6%
3.4%
1.04
1.5
85.1%
14.9%
1.17
2.5
65.7%
34.3%
1.52
3.5
43.8%
56.2%
2.28
4.5
25.3%
74.7%
3.95
5.5
12.8%
87.2%
7.84
Compare the fair-odds column against the bookmaker's Over price — significant gaps either way are value flags. Model assumes Poisson-distributed goals and average attack/defence; doesn't yet adjust for home advantage or vs-tier opponent strength (planned, see VS Engine extension spec).
BTTS Rate vs Table Tier
Both teams' BTTS rate broken down by opponent's league position. Spot the gap between season-overall and tier-specific rates.
Newcastle Unitedseason 73.3%
vs Top tier
76.9%
(13)
vs Mid tier
57.1%
(7)
vs Bottom tier
80%
(5)
Liverpoolseason 58.6%
vs Top tier
30%
(10)
vs Mid tier
77.8%
(9)
vs Bottom tier
83.3%
(6)
Clean Sheet Rate
% of matches with no goals conceded — opponent's path to BTTS No or Win-to-Nil
Newcastle United
13.3%
Liverpool
27.6%
Clean-sheet win rate: Newcastle United 10% · Liverpool 24.1%

Scoring Patterns

Newcastle UnitedLiverpool
30%SCORED FIRST41%
17%FAILED TO SCORE17%
47%LEADING AT HT59%
53%CONCEDED 2+38%

HEAD-TO-HEAD

Liverpool4 - 1Newcastle Utd
Newcastle Utd2 - 3Liverpool
Liverpool1 - 2Newcastle Utd
Liverpool2 - 0Newcastle Utd
Newcastle Utd3 - 3Liverpool

0 meetings: 0 home wins, 0 draws, 0 away wins

Half-Time Behaviour

Half-Time Lead Rate
How often each team is leading / drawing / trailing at HT
Newcastle Unitedlead 30% · draw 30% · trail 40%
Liverpoollead 41% · draw 34% · trail 24%
HT/FT Combinations (model)
Joint half-time × full-time rates blended from Newcastle United's and Liverpool's half-by-half records. Heatmap intensity = relative likelihood.
Home / Home
1/1
24.8%
Home / Draw
1/X
10.9%
Home / Away
1/2
10.9%
Draw / Home
X/1
9.5%
Draw / Draw
X/X
12.9%
Draw / Away
X/2
9.9%
Away / Home
2/1
8.6%
Away / Draw
2/X
8.6%
Away / Away
2/2
23.5%
Independence assumption between halves is an approximation — true joint frequencies require per-match HT+FT pairs (VS Engine extension planned). Use for relative comparison rather than absolute probability.
First-Half Tendency
How each team starts matches — anchor for 1H markets, HT/FT, Half-Time Result.
Stat
Newcastle United
Liverpool
Scored first %
30%
41.4%
Conceded first %
—
—
Failed to score %
16.7%
17.2%

Set Pieces & Discipline

Corners

Per-match rolling average
Newcastle UnitedLiverpool
0CORNERS FOR0
0CORNERS AGAINST0
0NET DIFF0
Total Corners — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Newcastle United (5.50 / 4.90 per match) and Liverpool (6.83 / 4.00). Expected total: 10.62. Compare the fair-odds column against the bookie's Over price for value.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
7.5
83.0%
17.0%
1.20
8.5
73.2%
26.8%
1.37
9.5
61.6%
38.4%
1.62
10.5
49.3%
50.7%
2.03
11.5
37.5%
62.5%
2.67
12.5
27.0%
73.0%
3.70
Corner Dominance
Expected corners: Newcastle United 4.8, Liverpool 5.9. Difference: -1.1.
Newcastle United 45%55% Liverpool

Cards & Discipline

Newcastle UnitedLiverpool
0YELLOW / MATCH0
0RED / MATCH0
0TOTAL / MATCH0
Total Cards — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Newcastle United (2.00 / 2.00 per match) and Liverpool (1.31 / 1.31). Expected total: 3.31. Note: card markets are heavily referee-driven — combine with Referee Effect.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
2.5
64.3%
35.7%
1.56
3.5
42.2%
57.8%
2.37
4.5
23.9%
76.1%
4.18
5.5
11.8%
88.2%
8.45
6.5
5.2%
94.8%
19.37

Shots

Per-match rolling average
Newcastle UnitedLiverpool
0SHOTS / MATCH0
0ON TARGET0
0CONCEDED0
0ON TARGET CONC.0
Total Shots — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Newcastle United (12.37 / 12.77 per match) and Liverpool (15.34 / 10.59). Expected total: 25.54. Total shots includes off-target attempts.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
18.5
92.4%
7.6%
1.08
20.5
84.1%
15.9%
1.19
22.5
71.9%
28.1%
1.39
24.5
56.9%
43.1%
1.76
26.5
41.2%
58.8%
2.43
Total SoT — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Newcastle United (4.70 / 5.37 per match) and Liverpool (5.24 / 4.17). Expected total: 9.74. Shots on target only — typically half the total shot count.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
6.5
85.3%
14.7%
1.17
7.5
75.5%
24.5%
1.32
8.5
63.7%
36.3%
1.57
9.5
50.9%
49.1%
1.96
10.5
38.4%
61.6%
2.60
11.5
27.4%
72.6%
3.65

Combos & Specials

Combo Bet Hit Rate
How often each team has hit common combo bets (Win+BTTS, Win-to-Nil, Win+Over 2.5) — overall and against specific tiers. Cells suppressed when sample < 5 matches.
Newcastle United
Win + BTTS
season
26.7%
vs top
30.8%
vs mid
0%
vs bottom
60%
Win to Nil
season
10%
vs top
7.7%
vs mid
28.6%
vs bottom
0%
Win + Over 2.5
season
30%
vs top
30.8%
vs mid
14.3%
vs bottom
60%
Loss + BTTS
season
33.3%
vs top
30.8%
vs mid
57.1%
vs bottom
0%
Draw + Under 2.5
season
13.3%
vs top
15.4%
vs mid
0%
vs bottom
40%
Scored in Both Halves
season
33.3%
vs top
38.5%
vs mid
28.6%
vs bottom
60%
Liverpool
Win + BTTS
season
20.7%
vs top
0%
vs mid
33.3%
vs bottom
16.7%
Win to Nil
season
24.1%
vs top
30%
vs mid
22.2%
vs bottom
16.7%
Win + Over 2.5
season
34.5%
vs top
30%
vs mid
33.3%
vs bottom
16.7%
Loss + BTTS
season
20.7%
vs top
30%
vs mid
11.1%
vs bottom
33.3%
Draw + Under 2.5
season
17.2%
vs top
10%
vs mid
22.2%
vs bottom
33.3%
Scored in Both Halves
season
34.5%
vs top
30%
vs mid
33.3%
vs bottom
33.3%
Unbeaten Run
Consecutive matches without losing — the safer side of Double Chance / DNB
Newcastle United
lost last match
0
Liverpool
1 match unbeaten
1
Win % Excluding Draws
How often each team wins when the match doesn't end in a draw — DNB anchor
Newcastle United
50%
2W · 1D · 2L · draw rate 20%
Liverpool
33.3%
1W · 2D · 2L · draw rate 40%

HIDDEN PATTERNS

Newcastle United vs Liverpool
  • Coffee on the rise! When coffee futures close higher and Newcastle United playGOAL FEST (Over 2.5)
    9/9Applies today
  • Coffee on the rise! When coffee futures close higher and Newcastle United playBOTH TEAMS SCORE
    9/9Applies today
  • Waxing Moon Effect! When the moon grows and Liverpool playLiverpool SCORE
    9/9Applies today
  • Sugar rush on matchday! When sugar futures close higher and Liverpool playLiverpool SCORE
    11/12Applies today
  • Coffee on the rise! When coffee futures close higher and Newcastle United playNewcastle United SCORE
    12/14Applies today

Match Insights

Betting Trends
No betting data available for this market yet.

League bests

BEST OVERALL
  1. #1IK Sirius2.67 poäng/match
  2. #2Hammarby IF1.77 poäng/match
  3. #3BK Hacken1.67 poäng/match
BEST ATTACK
  1. #1IK Sirius2.75 mål/match
  2. #2Hammarby IF2.15 mål/match
  3. #3Djurgardens IF2.09 mål/match
BEST DEFENCE
  1. #1GAIS0.92 insläppta/match
  2. #2Hammarby IF1.08 insläppta/match
  3. #3IF Elfsborg1.08 insläppta/match
BEST FORM
  1. #1IK Sirius80% vinster senaste 5
  2. #2Malmo FF60% vinster senaste 5
  3. #3IF Elfsborg60% vinster senaste 5
BEST GOAL DIFFERENCE
  1. #1IK Sirius+18
  2. #2Hammarby IF+14
  3. #3Djurgardens IF+8
★ PLAYERSWho decides this match.

PLAYER PROFILE

Newcastle United vs Liverpool
Newcastle United
  • Gordon, Anthony
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Osula, William
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Barnes, Harvey
    0G
    0A
    0
Liverpool
  • Ekitike, Hugo
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Salah, Mohamed
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Wirtz, Florian
    0G
    0A
    0

TOP SCORERS

  1. 1
    Ure, RobbieSIR
    12
  2. 2
    Botheim, ErikMAL
    10
  3. 3
    Bjerkebo, IsakSIR
    10
  4. 4
    Ladefoged, MikkelVAS
    9
  5. 5
    Lien, Kristian StromlandDJU
    7
  6. 6
    Abraham, PaulosHIF
    7
  7. 7
    Heintz, TobiasIFK
    6
  8. 8
    Besara, NahirHIF
    5
  9. 9
    Lind, VictorHIF
    5
  10. 10
    Bergstrom, JacobMJA
    5

Top Assists

  1. 1
    Hegland, Bo AsulvDJU
    8
  2. 2
    Berg, OliverBRO
    5
  3. 3
    Haksabanovic, SeadMAL
    5
  4. 4
    Krusnell, OscarSIR
    5
  5. 5
    Hansen, MadsBRO
    5
  6. 6
    Sana, TobiasORG
    4
  7. 7
    Besara, NahirHIF
    4
  8. 8
    Layouni, AmorHAC
    4
  9. 9
    Lushaku, IsmetVAS
    4
  10. 10
    Milovanovic, WilliamGAIS
    4
★ MATCH INFOVenue, ref, weather.
NUNewcastle United
LLiverpool
Premier LeagueSun 23 Aug, 17:30
At This Venue
Last 2 meetings at Newcastle United's home ground.
25 Aug 25Newcastle United vs Liverpool FC2–3
04 Dec 24Newcastle United vs Liverpool FC3–3
Historical H2H (5 meetings)
Avg goals: 4.20 · BTTS: 80% · Over 2.5: 80% · Clean sheet either side: 20%
DateMatchScoreComp.
31 Jan 26Liverpool FC vs Newcastle United4–1—
25 Aug 25Newcastle United vs Liverpool FC2–3—
16 Mar 25Liverpool FC vs Newcastle United1–2—
26 Feb 25Liverpool FC vs Newcastle United2–0—
04 Dec 24Newcastle United vs Liverpool FC3–3—
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