Win Rate vs Table Tier

Each team's win % against opponents in the top, middle, and bottom thirds of the table this season.

Team Goals Distribution (model)

Probability of each team scoring 0, 1, 2, or 3+ goals — anchor for Team Total Goals markets.

Total Goals — Line Hit Rate (model)

Poisson estimate from PSV (2.71 scored / 1.46 conceded per match) and Fortuna Sittard (1.38 / 1.86). Expected total: 3.71.

Compare the fair-odds column against the bookmaker's Over price — significant gaps either way are value flags. Model assumes Poisson-distributed goals and average attack/defence; doesn't yet adjust for home advantage or vs-tier opponent strength (planned, see VS Engine extension spec).

BTTS Rate vs Table Tier

Both teams' BTTS rate broken down by opponent's league position. Spot the gap between season-overall and tier-specific rates.

Clean Sheet Rate

% of matches with no goals conceded — opponent's path to BTTS No or Win-to-Nil

Clean-sheet win rate: PSV 17.9% · Fortuna Sittard 10.3%

Half-Time Lead Rate

How often each team is leading / drawing / trailing at HT

HT/FT Combinations (model)

Joint half-time × full-time rates blended from PSV 's and Fortuna Sittard's half-by-half records. Heatmap intensity = relative likelihood.

Independence assumption between halves is an approximation — true joint frequencies require per-match HT+FT pairs (VS Engine extension planned). Use for relative comparison rather than absolute probability.

First-Half Tendency

How each team starts matches — anchor for 1H markets, HT/FT, Half-Time Result.

Total Corners — Line Hit Rate (model)

Poisson estimate from PSV (6.50 / 3.93 per match) and Fortuna Sittard (4.28 / 6.17). Expected total: 10.44. Compare the fair-odds column against the bookie's Over price for value.

Corner Dominance

Expected corners: PSV 6.3, Fortuna Sittard 4.1. Difference: +2.2.

Total Cards — Line Hit Rate (model)

Poisson estimate from PSV (1.79 / 1.79 per match) and Fortuna Sittard (2.03 / 2.03). Expected total: 3.82. Note: card markets are heavily referee-driven — combine with Referee Effect.

Total Shots — Line Hit Rate (model)

Poisson estimate from PSV (13.72 / 9.64 per match) and Fortuna Sittard (10.70 / 12.81). Expected total: 23.44. Total shots includes off-target attempts.

Total SoT — Line Hit Rate (model)

Poisson estimate from PSV (6.64 / 4.12 per match) and Fortuna Sittard (4.33 / 5.78). Expected total: 10.43. Shots on target only — typically half the total shot count.

Combo Bet Hit Rate

How often each team has hit common combo bets (Win+BTTS, Win-to-Nil, Win+Over 2.5) — overall and against specific tiers. Cells suppressed when sample < 5 matches.

Unbeaten Run

Consecutive matches without losing — the safer side of Double Chance / DNB

Win % Excluding Draws

How often each team wins when the match doesn't end in a draw — DNB anchor

Betting Trends