junibet
RomavsGenoa
Match
★ THE AI READEvery signal we found, grouped.
RomavsGenoa
GOALS

Both attacks fire — 2.8 goals expected, line is 2.5

Roma
2.0
Genoa
1.1

Roma 2.0 g/m, Genoa 1.1. Edge is mild — line and model are close.

Over 2.5 Goals
Alt:Over 2.54.80Over 2.52.05
CORNERS

Roma live in the opposition third — 9.6 corners/match between them

Roma avg 5.0Genoa avg 4.6
5.0
4.6
total scale: 0 → 14

Combined 9.6/m vs the 8.5 line — only 1.1 over. The shape is right, the margin is thin.

Over 8.5 Corners
Alt:Over 8.53.30Over 7.52.50
BTTS

Roma clean sheets 41% of the time

41%
Roma CS
28%
Genoa CS
Clean-sheet rate · last 10

Genoa keep one in 4. The lockdown read isn't fanciful at this price.

Both teams to score · No
★ ALL MARKETSCompare every line.
Full Time
Roma to Win to Nil
Roma to Win At Least One Half
Genoa to Win At Least One Half
Genoa to Win to Nil
Both Teams To Score
Goal in Both Halves
Both Teams To Score - 2nd Half
Roma to Win and Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score - 1st Half
Genoa to Win and Both Teams To Score
Total Goals
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
Total Goals by Roma
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
Under—
Total Goals by Genoa
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
2.5
Under—
Double Chance - 2nd Half
Double Chance - 1st Half
Double Chance
Draw No Bet
Draw No Bet - 2nd Half
Draw No Bet - 1st Half
Total Goals - 1st Half
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
2.5
Total Goals - 2nd Half
LineUnderOver
0.5
1.5
2.5
Total Goals by Roma - 2nd Half
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
Total Goals by Roma - 1st Half
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
2.5
Total Goals by Genoa - 1st Half
LineOverUnder
0.5
Total Goals by Genoa - 2nd Half
LineOverUnder
0.5
3-Way Handicap - 1st Half
Line1X
Roma
Roma
Roma
First Goal (Draw: No Goals)
2nd Half
Half Time
Total Corners
LineUnderOver
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
12.5
13.5
Total Corners - 1st Half
LineOverUnder
3.5
4.5
5.5
Total Corners - 2nd Half
LineOverUnder
5.5
Total Corners By Roma - 1st Half
LineOverUnder
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
Total Corners by Roma
LineOverUnder
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
Total Corners by Genoa
LineOverUnder
2.5
3.5
4.5
Total Corners By Genoa - 1st Half
LineOverUnder
0.5
1.5
Corners 3-Way Handicap
Line1X
Roma
Roma
Roma
Most Corners
Next Corner, No Corner No Bet (1)
Total Shots on Target
LineOver2
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
Total Shots on Target by Genoa
LineOver2
2.5
3.5
Total Shots on Target by Roma
LineOver2
5.5
6.5
7.5
★ DEEP STATSForm, history, edge.

Form & Hierarchy

FORM

Last 5 matches
HomeRoma
AwayGenoa
Win Rate vs Table Tier
Each team's win % against opponents in the top, middle, and bottom thirds of the table this season.
Roma
vs Top tier
9%
1W·7D·3L (11)
vs Mid tier
86%
6W·0D·1L (7)
vs Bottom tier
86%
6W·0D·1L (7)
Genoa
vs Top tier
11%
1W·2D·6L (9)
vs Mid tier
29%
2W·1D·4L (7)
vs Bottom tier
43%
3W·2D·2L (7)

Momentum Meter

RomaGenoa
▼MOMENTUM▲
2.60PPG (LAST 5)0.20
41%CLEAN-SHEET WIN RATE12%

League Position

1AS Roma13pts
2Inter Milano13pts
3Lazio Rome13pts
4Cagliari Calcio12pts

League table

#TeamPGDPts
1AS Roma5+1113
2Inter Milano5+713
3Lazio Rome5+513
4Cagliari Calcio5+312
5AC Milan5+611

Goals & BTTS

GOAL PROFILE

Roma vs Genoa
Roma117 goals
1st half0%
2nd half0%
58 matches analysed
Genoa61 goals
1st half0%
2nd half0%
57 matches analysed
Team Goals Distribution (model)
Probability of each team scoring 0, 1, 2, or 3+ goals — anchor for Team Total Goals markets.
Roma — expected: 1.66 goals
0
19.0%
1
31.6%
2
26.2%
3+
23.2%
Genoa — expected: 1.15 goals
0
31.7%
1
36.4%
2
20.9%
3+
11.0%
Total Goals — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Roma (2.00 scored / 1.22 conceded per match) and Genoa (1.08 / 1.32). Expected total: 2.81.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
0.5
94.0%
6.0%
1.06
1.5
77.1%
22.9%
1.30
2.5
53.3%
46.7%
1.88
3.5
31.0%
69.0%
3.22
4.5
15.4%
84.6%
6.50
5.5
6.6%
93.4%
15.15
Compare the fair-odds column against the bookmaker's Over price — significant gaps either way are value flags. Model assumes Poisson-distributed goals and average attack/defence; doesn't yet adjust for home advantage or vs-tier opponent strength (planned, see VS Engine extension spec).
BTTS Rate vs Table Tier
Both teams' BTTS rate broken down by opponent's league position. Spot the gap between season-overall and tier-specific rates.
Romaseason 51.9%
vs Top tier
100%
(11)
vs Mid tier
14.3%
(7)
vs Bottom tier
14.3%
(7)
Genoaseason 44%
vs Top tier
44.4%
(9)
vs Mid tier
57.1%
(7)
vs Bottom tier
28.6%
(7)
Clean Sheet Rate
% of matches with no goals conceded — opponent's path to BTTS No or Win-to-Nil
Roma
40.7%
Genoa
28%
Clean-sheet win rate: Roma 40.7% · Genoa 12%

Scoring Patterns

RomaGenoa
48%SCORED FIRST12%
7%FAILED TO SCORE44%
67%LEADING AT HT36%
37%CONCEDED 2+44%

HEAD-TO-HEAD

Genoa2 - 1AS Roma
AS Roma3 - 1Genoa
AS Roma3 - 1Genoa
Genoa1 - 1AS Roma
AS Roma1 - 0Genoa
Genoa4 - 1AS Roma

0 meetings: 0 home wins, 0 draws, 0 away wins

Half-Time Behaviour

Half-Time Lead Rate
How often each team is leading / drawing / trailing at HT
Romalead 48% · draw 41% · trail 11%
Genoalead 12% · draw 48% · trail 40%
HT/FT Combinations (model)
Joint half-time × full-time rates blended from Roma's and Genoa's half-by-half records. Heatmap intensity = relative likelihood.
Home / Home
1/1
21.3%
Home / Draw
1/X
8.8%
Home / Away
1/2
8.8%
Draw / Home
X/1
16.7%
Draw / Draw
X/X
14.9%
Draw / Away
X/2
12.8%
Away / Home
2/1
8.9%
Away / Draw
2/X
8.9%
Away / Away
2/2
16.7%
Independence assumption between halves is an approximation — true joint frequencies require per-match HT+FT pairs (VS Engine extension planned). Use for relative comparison rather than absolute probability.
First-Half Tendency
How each team starts matches — anchor for 1H markets, HT/FT, Half-Time Result.
Stat
Roma
Genoa
Scored first %
48.1%
12%
Conceded first %
—
—
Failed to score %
7.4%
44%

Set Pieces & Discipline

Corners

Per-match rolling average
RomaGenoa
0CORNERS FOR0
0CORNERS AGAINST0
0NET DIFF0
Total Corners — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Roma (4.96 / 3.26 per match) and Genoa (4.64 / 4.28). Expected total: 8.57. Compare the fair-odds column against the bookie's Over price for value.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
7.5
62.3%
37.7%
1.60
8.5
48.6%
51.4%
2.06
9.5
35.6%
64.4%
2.81
10.5
24.4%
75.6%
4.09
11.5
15.7%
84.3%
6.35
12.5
9.5%
90.5%
10.50
Corner Dominance
Expected corners: Roma 4.6, Genoa 3.9. Difference: +0.7.
Roma 54%46% Genoa

Cards & Discipline

RomaGenoa
0YELLOW / MATCH0
0RED / MATCH0
0TOTAL / MATCH0
Total Cards — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Roma (1.78 / 1.78 per match) and Genoa (1.40 / 1.40). Expected total: 3.18. Note: card markets are heavily referee-driven — combine with Referee Effect.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
2.5
61.6%
38.4%
1.62
3.5
39.3%
60.7%
2.54
4.5
21.6%
78.4%
4.63
5.5
10.3%
89.7%
9.70
6.5
4.3%
95.7%
23.03

Shots

Per-match rolling average
RomaGenoa
0SHOTS / MATCH0
0ON TARGET0
0CONCEDED0
0ON TARGET CONC.0
Total Shots — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Roma (13.48 / 9.52 per match) and Genoa (11.60 / 11.16). Expected total: 22.88. Total shots includes off-target attempts.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
18.5
81.9%
18.1%
1.22
20.5
68.1%
31.9%
1.47
22.5
51.8%
48.2%
1.93
24.5
35.6%
64.4%
2.81
26.5
22.0%
78.0%
4.55
Total SoT — Line Hit Rate (model)
Poisson estimate from Roma (4.88 / 4.00 per match) and Genoa (3.68 / 3.72). Expected total: 8.14. Shots on target only — typically half the total shot count.
Line
P(Over)
Over %
Under %
Fair odds
6.5
70.3%
29.7%
1.42
7.5
56.6%
43.4%
1.77
8.5
42.7%
57.3%
2.34
9.5
30.1%
69.9%
3.32
10.5
19.8%
80.2%
5.04
11.5
12.2%
87.8%
8.18

Combos & Specials

Combo Bet Hit Rate
How often each team has hit common combo bets (Win+BTTS, Win-to-Nil, Win+Over 2.5) — overall and against specific tiers. Cells suppressed when sample < 5 matches.
Roma
Win + BTTS
season
7.4%
vs top
9.1%
vs mid
14.3%
vs bottom
0%
Win to Nil
season
40.7%
vs top
0%
vs mid
71.4%
vs bottom
85.7%
Win + Over 2.5
season
25.9%
vs top
9.1%
vs mid
28.6%
vs bottom
57.1%
Loss + BTTS
season
14.8%
vs top
27.3%
vs mid
0%
vs bottom
14.3%
Draw + Under 2.5
season
14.8%
vs top
36.4%
vs mid
0%
vs bottom
0%
Scored in Both Halves
season
44.4%
vs top
36.4%
vs mid
71.4%
vs bottom
42.9%
Genoa
Win + BTTS
season
20%
vs top
11.1%
vs mid
28.6%
vs bottom
14.3%
Win to Nil
season
12%
vs top
0%
vs mid
0%
vs bottom
28.6%
Win + Over 2.5
season
24%
vs top
11.1%
vs mid
28.6%
vs bottom
28.6%
Loss + BTTS
season
20%
vs top
22.2%
vs mid
28.6%
vs bottom
14.3%
Draw + Under 2.5
season
20%
vs top
22.2%
vs mid
14.3%
vs bottom
28.6%
Scored in Both Halves
season
20%
vs top
11.1%
vs mid
14.3%
vs bottom
28.6%
Unbeaten Run
Consecutive matches without losing — the safer side of Double Chance / DNB
Roma
5 matches unbeaten
5
Genoa
lost last match
0
Win % Excluding Draws
How often each team wins when the match doesn't end in a draw — DNB anchor
Roma
100%
4W · 1D · 0L · draw rate 20%
Genoa
0%
0W · 1D · 4L · draw rate 20%

HIDDEN PATTERNS

Roma vs Genoa
  • The Prime Number Effect! When Roma play on prime datesRoma SCORE
    7/8Applies today
  • OJ futures pop! When orange-juice futures close higher and Roma playRoma SCORE
    17/17Applies today
  • Waxing Moon Effect! When the moon grows and Roma playRoma SCORE
    11/11Applies today
  • Sugar rush on matchday! When sugar futures close higher and Roma playRoma SCORE
    17/18Applies today
  • The Cocoa Effect! When cocoa futures close higher and Roma playRoma SCORE
    14/16Applies today

Match Insights

Betting Trends
No betting data available for this market yet.

MATCH INSIGHT

Roma vs Genoa
  • Half-time result
    Roma13W 11D 3L
    Genoa3W 12D 10L
  • Both teams to score
    Roma52%
    Genoa44%

League bests

BEST OVERALL
  1. #1IK Sirius2.32 poäng/match
  2. #2Hammarby IF1.95 poäng/match
  3. #3Djurgardens IF1.86 poäng/match
BEST ATTACK
  1. #1IK Sirius2.36 mål/match
  2. #2Hammarby IF2.23 mål/match
  3. #3Djurgardens IF2.14 mål/match
BEST DEFENCE
  1. #1Hammarby IF0.91 insläppta/match
  2. #2GAIS0.91 insläppta/match
  3. #3Djurgardens IF0.95 insläppta/match
BEST FORM
  1. #1IK Sirius80% vinster senaste 5
  2. #2IF Elfsborg60% vinster senaste 5
  3. #3Malmo FF60% vinster senaste 5
BEST GOAL DIFFERENCE
  1. #1Hammarby IF+29
  2. #2Djurgardens IF+26
  3. #3IK Sirius+24
★ PLAYERSWho decides this match.

PLAYER PROFILE

Roma vs Genoa
Roma
  • Malen, Donyell
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Dybala, Paulo
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Pellegrini, Lorenzo
    0G
    0A
    0
Genoa
  • Otoa, Sebastian
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Ekuban, Caleb
    0G
    0A
    0
  • Colombo, Lorenzo
    0G
    0A
    0

TOP SCORERS

  1. 1
    Lien, Kristian StromlandDJU
    16
  2. 2
    Ure, RobbieSIR
    15
  3. 3
    Abraham, PaulosHIF
    14
  4. 4
    Bjerkebo, IsakSIR
    13
  5. 5
    Lindgren, GustavHAC
    12
  6. 6
    Botheim, ErikMAL
    10
  7. 7
    Lind, VictorHIF
    9
  8. 8
    Bergstrom, JacobMJA
    9
  9. 9
    Christofferson, NoahORG
    8
  10. 10
    Hegland, Bo AsulvDJU
    8

Top Assists

  1. 1
    Hegland, Bo AsulvDJU
    14
  2. 2
    Lind, VictorHIF
    13
  3. 3
    Haksabanovic, SeadMAL
    8
  4. 4
    Bjerkebo, IsakSIR
    7
  5. 5
    Sana, TobiasORG
    6
  6. 6
    Berg, OliverBRO
    6
  7. 7
    Hansen, MadsBRO
    6
  8. 8
    Heintz, TobiasIFK
    5
  9. 9
    Krusnell, OscarSIR
    5
  10. 10
    Lindberg, JuliusHAC
    5
★ MATCH INFOVenue, ref, weather.
RRoma
GGenoa
Serie ASat 17 Oct, 20:45
Round
Serie A matchweek
7
VenueStadio OlimpicoRome · Italy · 70,634
Historical H2H (10 meetings)
Avg goals: 2.60 · BTTS: 60% · Over 2.5: 50% · Clean sheet either side: 40%
DateMatchScoreComp.
08 Mar 26Genoa FC vs AS Roma2–1—
29 Dec 25AS Roma vs Genoa FC3–1—
17 Jan 25AS Roma vs Genoa FC3–1—
15 Sept 24Genoa FC vs AS Roma1–1—
19 May 24AS Roma vs Genoa FC1–0—
28 Sept 23Genoa FC vs AS Roma4–1—
05 Feb 22AS Roma vs Genoa FC0–0—
21 Nov 21Genoa FC vs AS Roma0–2—
07 Mar 21AS Roma vs Genoa FC1–0—
08 Nov 20Genoa FC vs AS Roma1–3—
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