Junibet

AC MilanvsAtalanta

Match

★ THE AI READEvery signal we found, grouped.

AC MilanvsAtalanta

CORNERS

AC Milan live in the opposition third — 7.9 corners/match between them

Combined 7.9/m vs the 6.5 line — only 1.4 over. The shape is right, the margin is thin.

Over 6.5 Corners

Alt:Over 5.53.15Over 5.52.95

BTTS

Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10

AC Milan at 46%, Atalanta at 63%. The H2H rate is 54% — the model copies it.

Both teams to score

GOALS

Both attacks fire — 2.5 goals expected, line is 2.5

AC Milan 1.3 g/m, Atalanta 1.3. Edge is mild — line and model are close.

Over 2.5 Goals

Alt:Over 2.51.82Over 2.54.10

MATCH RESULT

AC Milan unbeaten in 5

Hard to break right now. AC Milan to win at 1.86 respects the pattern without overpaying.

AC Milan to win

★ ALL MARKETSCompare every line.

★ POPULAR VALUE BETSWhere the crowd is putting their money — value picks only (1.50–5.00).

Under (Under)

Match

Full Time

AC Milan to Win At Least One Half

Atalanta to Win At Least One Half

AC Milan to Win to Nil

Atalanta to Win to Nil

Atalanta to Win and Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score - 2nd Half

Both Teams To Score - 1st Half

Goal in Both Halves

AC Milan to Win and Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score

Total Goals

LineOverUnder

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

Total Goals by Atalanta

LineOverUnder

0.5

1.5

2.5

Total Goals by AC Milan

LineOverUnder

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

Under—

Double Chance - 1st Half

Double Chance

Double Chance - 2nd Half

Draw No Bet - 2nd Half

Draw No Bet - 1st Half

Draw No Bet

Total Goals - 1st Half

LineOverUnder

0.5

1.5

2.5

Total Goals - 2nd Half

LineUnderOver

0.5

1.5

2.5

Total Goals by AC Milan - 1st Half

LineOverUnder

0.5

1.5

Total Goals by AC Milan - 2nd Half

LineOverUnder

0.5

1.5

Total Goals by Atalanta - 2nd Half

LineOverUnder

0.5

Total Goals by Atalanta - 1st Half

LineOverUnder

0.5

1.5

3-Way Handicap - 1st Half

Line1X

AC Milan

AC Milan

AC Milan

2nd Half

Half Time

First Goal (Draw: No Goals)

Total Corners

LineUnderOver

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

10.5

11.5

12.5

13.5

Total Corners - 1st Half

LineOverUnder

3.5

4.5

5.5

Total Corners - 2nd Half

LineOverUnder

5.5

Total Corners by Atalanta

LineOverUnder

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

Total Corners by AC Milan

LineOverUnder

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

Total Corners By AC Milan - 1st Half

LineOverUnder

1.5

2.5

3.5

Total Corners By Atalanta - 1st Half

LineOverUnder

1.5

2.5

Corners 3-Way Handicap

Line1X

AC Milan

AC Milan

AC Milan

Next Corner, No Corner No Bet (1)

Most Corners

Total Shots on Target by Atalanta

LineOver2

2.5

3.5

4.5

Total Shots on Target by AC Milan

LineOver2

4.5

5.5

6.5

Total Shots on Target

LineOver2

7.5

8.5

9.5

10.5

★ DEEP STATSForm, history, edge.

Form & Hierarchy

FORM

Last 5 matches

HomeAC Milan

AwayAtalanta

Win Rate vs Table Tier

Each team's win % against opponents in the top, middle, and bottom thirds of the table this season.

AC Milan

vs Top tier

11%

1W·5D·3L (9)

vs Mid tier

44%

4W·0D·5L (9)

vs Bottom tier

100%

6W·0D·0L (6)

Atalanta

vs Top tier

30%

3W·3D·4L (10)

vs Mid tier

25%

2W·2D·4L (8)

Momentum Meter

AC MilanAtalanta

▼MOMENTUM▼

2.20PPG (LAST 5)1.20

27%CLEAN-SHEET WIN RATE17%

League Position

4Cagliari Calcio12pts

5AC Milan11pts

6Frosinone Calcio10pts

7Juventus Turin10pts

League table

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	AS Roma	5	+11	13
2	Inter Milano	5	+7	13
3	Lazio Rome	5	+5	13
4	Cagliari Calcio	5	+3	12
5	AC Milan	5	+6	11

Goals & BTTS

GOAL PROFILE

AC Milan vs Atalanta

AC Milan70 goals

1st half0%

2nd half0%

54 matches analysed

Atalanta88 goals

1st half0%

2nd half0%

62 matches analysed

Team Goals Distribution (model)

Probability of each team scoring 0, 1, 2, or 3+ goals — anchor for Team Total Goals markets.

AC Milan — expected: 1.36 goals

0

25.5%

1

34.9%

2

23.8%

3+

15.8%

Atalanta — expected: 1.17 goals

0

31.2%

1

36.3%

2

21.2%

3+

11.3%

Total Goals — Line Hit Rate (model)

Poisson estimate from AC Milan (1.27 scored / 1.08 conceded per match) and Atalanta (1.25 / 1.46). Expected total: 2.53.

Line

P(Over)

Over %

Under %

Fair odds

0.5

92.0%

8.0%

1.09

1.5

71.9%

28.1%

1.39

2.5

46.4%

53.6%

2.16

3.5

24.9%

75.1%

4.02

4.5

11.3%

88.7%

8.86

5.5

4.4%

95.6%

22.70

Compare the fair-odds column against the bookmaker's Over price — significant gaps either way are value flags. Model assumes Poisson-distributed goals and average attack/defence; doesn't yet adjust for home advantage or vs-tier opponent strength (planned, see VS Engine extension spec).

BTTS Rate vs Table Tier

Both teams' BTTS rate broken down by opponent's league position. Spot the gap between season-overall and tier-specific rates.

AC Milanseason 46.2%

vs Top tier

55.6%

(9)

vs Mid tier

33.3%

(9)

vs Bottom tier

33.3%

(6)

Atalantaseason 62.5%

vs Top tier

70%

(10)

vs Mid tier

50%

(8)

Clean Sheet Rate

% of matches with no goals conceded — opponent's path to BTTS No or Win-to-Nil

AC Milan

30.8%

Atalanta

25%

Clean-sheet win rate: AC Milan 26.9% · Atalanta 16.7%

Scoring Patterns

AC MilanAtalanta

19%SCORED FIRST21%

27%FAILED TO SCORE21%

58%LEADING AT HT42%

31%CONCEDED 2+42%

HEAD-TO-HEAD

10 May 2026

AC Milan2 - 3Atalanta Bergamasca

28 Oct 2025

Atalanta Bergamasca1 - 1AC Milan

20 Apr 2025

AC Milan0 - 1Atalanta Bergamasca

6 Dec 2024

Atalanta Bergamasca2 - 1AC Milan

25 Feb 2024

AC Milan1 - 1Atalanta Bergamasca

9 Dec 2023

Atalanta Bergamasca3 - 2AC Milan

0 meetings: 0 home wins, 0 draws, 0 away wins

Half-Time Behaviour

Half-Time Lead Rate

How often each team is leading / drawing / trailing at HT

AC Milanlead 19% · draw 50% · trail 31%

Atalantalead 21% · draw 50% · trail 29%

HT/FT Combinations (model)

Joint half-time × full-time rates blended from AC Milan's and Atalanta's half-by-half records. Heatmap intensity = relative likelihood.

Home / Home

1/1

13.9%

Home / Draw

1/X

6.1%

Home / Away

1/2

6.1%

Draw / Home

X/1

18.8%

Draw / Draw

X/X

16.0%

Draw / Away

X/2

15.1%

Away / Home

2/1

11.4%

Away / Draw

2/X

11.4%

Away / Away

2/2

18.6%

Independence assumption between halves is an approximation — true joint frequencies require per-match HT+FT pairs (VS Engine extension planned). Use for relative comparison rather than absolute probability.

First-Half Tendency

How each team starts matches — anchor for 1H markets, HT/FT, Half-Time Result.

Stat

AC Milan

Atalanta

Scored first %

19.2%

20.8%

Conceded first %

—

—

Failed to score %

26.9%

20.8%

Set Pieces & Discipline

Corners

Per-match rolling average

AC MilanAtalanta

0CORNERS FOR0

0CORNERS AGAINST0

0NET DIFF0

Total Corners — Line Hit Rate (model)

Poisson estimate from AC Milan (3.62 / 3.46 per match) and Atalanta (4.25 / 3.58). Expected total: 7.46. Compare the fair-odds column against the bookie's Over price for value.

Line

P(Over)

Over %

Under %

Fair odds

7.5

46.9%

53.1%

2.13

8.5

33.2%

66.8%

3.01

9.5

21.8%

78.2%

4.58

10.5

13.4%

86.6%

7.47

11.5

7.7%

92.3%

13.05

12.5

4.1%

95.9%

24.37

Corner Dominance

Expected corners: AC Milan 3.6, Atalanta 3.9. Difference: -0.3.

AC Milan 48%52% Atalanta

Cards & Discipline

AC MilanAtalanta

0YELLOW / MATCH0

0RED / MATCH0

0TOTAL / MATCH0

Total Cards — Line Hit Rate (model)

Poisson estimate from AC Milan (1.65 / 1.65 per match) and Atalanta (1.38 / 1.38). Expected total: 3.03. Note: card markets are heavily referee-driven — combine with Referee Effect.

Line

P(Over)

Over %

Under %

Fair odds

2.5

58.3%

41.7%

1.71

3.5

35.9%

64.1%

2.78

4.5

19.0%

81.0%

5.27

5.5

8.7%

91.3%

11.50

6.5

3.5%

96.5%

28.54

Shots

Per-match rolling average

AC MilanAtalanta

0SHOTS / MATCH0

0ON TARGET0

0CONCEDED0

0ON TARGET CONC.0

Total Shots — Line Hit Rate (model)

Poisson estimate from AC Milan (10.92 / 9.88 per match) and Atalanta (12.50 / 13.09). Expected total: 23.20. Total shots includes off-target attempts.

Line

P(Over)

Over %

Under %

Fair odds

18.5

83.5%

16.5%

1.20

20.5

70.4%

29.6%

1.42

22.5

54.4%

45.6%

1.84

24.5

38.1%

61.9%

2.62

26.5

24.0%

76.0%

4.16

Total SoT — Line Hit Rate (model)

Poisson estimate from AC Milan (3.68 / 3.80 per match) and Atalanta (4.27 / 5.05). Expected total: 8.40. Shots on target only — typically half the total shot count.

Line

P(Over)

Over %

Under %

Fair odds

6.5

73.3%

26.7%

1.36

7.5

60.1%

39.9%

1.66

8.5

46.3%

53.7%

2.16

9.5

33.4%

66.6%

2.99

10.5

22.6%

77.4%

4.43

11.5

14.3%

85.7%

7.00

Combos & Specials

Combo Bet Hit Rate

How often each team has hit common combo bets (Win+BTTS, Win-to-Nil, Win+Over 2.5) — overall and against specific tiers. Cells suppressed when sample < 5 matches.

AC Milan

Win + BTTS

season

15.4%

vs top

0%

vs mid

22.2%

vs bottom

33.3%

Win to Nil

season

26.9%

vs top

11.1%

vs mid

22.2%

vs bottom

66.7%

Win + Over 2.5

season

23.1%

vs top

0%

vs mid

44.4%

vs bottom

33.3%

Loss + BTTS

season

7.7%

vs top

11.1%

vs mid

11.1%

vs bottom

0%

Draw + Under 2.5

season

19.2%

vs top

44.4%

vs mid

0%

vs bottom

0%

Scored in Both Halves

season

15.4%

vs top

0%

vs mid

33.3%

vs bottom

16.7%

Atalanta

Win + BTTS

season

12.5%

vs top

20%

vs mid

12.5%

vs bottom

—

Win to Nil

season

16.7%

vs top

10%

vs mid

12.5%

vs bottom

—

Win + Over 2.5

season

16.7%

vs top

20%

vs mid

12.5%

vs bottom

—

Loss + BTTS

season

25%

vs top

30%

vs mid

25%

vs bottom

—

Draw + Under 2.5

season

25%

vs top

30%

vs mid

12.5%

vs bottom

—

Scored in Both Halves

season

16.7%

vs top

20%

vs mid

12.5%

vs bottom

—

Unbeaten Run

Consecutive matches without losing — the safer side of Double Chance / DNB

AC Milan

5 matches unbeaten

5

Atalanta

2 matches unbeaten

2

Win % Excluding Draws

How often each team wins when the match doesn't end in a draw — DNB anchor

AC Milan

100%

3W · 2D · 0L · draw rate 40%

Atalanta

40%

2W · 0D · 3L · draw rate 0%

HIDDEN PATTERNS

AC Milan vs Atalanta

Sugar rush on matchday! When sugar futures close higher and Atalanta playAtalanta SCORE
13/14Applies today
FTSE in the green! When the London market closes up and Atalanta playAtalanta SCORE
13/14Applies today
OJ futures pop! When orange-juice futures close higher and Atalanta playAtalanta SCORE
14/17Applies today
The Cocoa Effect! When cocoa futures close higher and Atalanta playAtalanta SCORE
13/16Applies today
OJ futures pop! When orange-juice futures close higher and AC Milan playAC Milan SCORE
11/14Applies today

Match Insights

Betting Trends

No betting data available for this market yet.

MATCH INSIGHT

AC Milan vs Atalanta

Second-half result
AC Milan12W 8D 6L
Atalanta7W 8D 9L
Home team corners
AC Milan3.6 /match
Atalanta4.3 /match

League bests

BEST OVERALL

#1IK Sirius2.32 poäng/match
#2Hammarby IF1.95 poäng/match
#3Djurgardens IF1.86 poäng/match

BEST ATTACK

#1IK Sirius2.36 mål/match
#2Hammarby IF2.23 mål/match
#3Djurgardens IF2.14 mål/match

BEST DEFENCE

#1Hammarby IF0.91 insläppta/match
#2GAIS0.91 insläppta/match
#3Djurgardens IF0.95 insläppta/match

BEST FORM

#1IK Sirius80% vinster senaste 5
#2IF Elfsborg60% vinster senaste 5
#3Malmo FF60% vinster senaste 5

BEST GOAL DIFFERENCE

#1Hammarby IF+29
#2Djurgardens IF+26
#3IK Sirius+24

★ PLAYERSWho decides this match.

PLAYER PROFILE

AC Milan vs Atalanta

AC Milan

Pulisic, Christian
0G
0A
0
Fofana, Youssouf
0G
0A
0
Rabiot, Adrien
0G
0A
0

Atalanta

Vavassori, Dominic
0G
0A
0
Scamacca, Gianluca
0G
0A
0
Raspadori, Giacomo
0G
0A
0

TOP SCORERS

1
Lien, Kristian StromlandDJU
16
2
Ure, RobbieSIR
15
3
Abraham, PaulosHIF
14
4
Bjerkebo, IsakSIR
13
5
Lindgren, GustavHAC
12
6
Botheim, ErikMAL
10
7
Lind, VictorHIF
9
8
Bergstrom, JacobMJA
9
9
Christofferson, NoahORG
8
10
Hegland, Bo AsulvDJU
8

Top Assists

1
Hegland, Bo AsulvDJU
14
2
Lind, VictorHIF
13
3
Haksabanovic, SeadMAL
8
4
Bjerkebo, IsakSIR
7
5
Sana, TobiasORG
6
6
Berg, OliverBRO
6
7
Hansen, MadsBRO
6
8
Heintz, TobiasIFK
5
9
Krusnell, OscarSIR
5
10
Lindberg, JuliusHAC
5

★ MATCH INFOVenue, ref, weather.

AMAC Milan

AAtalanta

Serie ASun 18 Oct, 18:00

Round

Serie A matchweek

7

VenueStadio Giuseppe MeazzaMilan · Italy · 80,018

At This Venue

Last 3 meetings at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.

10 May 26AC Milan vs Atalanta Bergamasca2–3

20 Apr 25AC Milan vs Atalanta Bergamasca0–1

25 Feb 24AC Milan vs Atalanta Bergamasca1–1

Historical H2H (10 meetings)

Avg goals: 2.90 · BTTS: 70% · Over 2.5: 40% · Clean sheet either side: 30%

DateMatchScoreComp.

10 May 26AC Milan vs Atalanta Bergamasca2–3—

28 Oct 25Atalanta Bergamasca vs AC Milan1–1—

20 Apr 25AC Milan vs Atalanta Bergamasca0–1—

06 Dec 24Atalanta Bergamasca vs AC Milan2–1—

25 Feb 24AC Milan vs Atalanta Bergamasca1–1—

09 Dec 23Atalanta Bergamasca vs AC Milan3–2—

26 Feb 23AC Milan vs Atalanta Bergamasca2–0—

21 Aug 22Atalanta Bergamasca vs AC Milan1–1—

15 May 22AC Milan vs Atalanta Bergamasca2–0—

03 Oct 21Atalanta Bergamasca vs AC Milan2–3—

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